Energy industry experts say American drivers shouldn't expect cheaper gasoline from President Trump's massive oil agreement with Venezuela, as meaningfully boosting the country's output could take years. Trump announced Friday that the U.S. had secured control over 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven oil reserves, roughly 20% of the South American nation's estimated 303 billion barrels total.

Analysts note that extracting these reserves requires massive capital investment. Meanwhile, with no specific terms yet released by the administration, the deal's legal standing and long-term viability with Caracas also remain murky. David Goldwyn, who served as the State Department's special envoy for international energy affairs under President Barack Obama, said that without concrete details, "we're basically still judging based on X posts and hearsay."

Trump promised on Friday that the agreement would "substantially reduce gasoline prices for all Americans over a very long period of time." Yet the national average gasoline price stood at $4.08 per gallon on Monday, according to AAA, nearly 30% higher than this time last year. Oil prices have climbed on Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries and supply disruptions in the Middle East tied to the Iran conflict.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said record-high Labor Day gasoline prices are essentially a foregone conclusion. The previous Labor Day record was $3.83 per gallon in 2012. "Unless there's a miraculous drop of 20 cents per gallon — which is virtually impossible — this will be a record Labor Day for the national average," De Haan said. "Unfortunately, gas has never been this expensive this late in the year."

Venezuelan oil exports won't provide American drivers any short-term relief. The country's petroleum infrastructure remains in disrepair after years of mismanagement under socialist governments. Venezuela currently pumps about 1.2 million barrels per day, far below its peak of 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s. Rystad Energy estimated in January that restoring production to that level would require roughly $180 billion in investment by 2040. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday Trump's deal would bring nearly $100 billion in private-sector investment to the country.

Goldwyn said of the agreement: "Over the next few years, this is absolutely not going to have any impact on gasoline prices or Venezuelan oil." Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said it remains unclear which oil companies might invest in Venezuelan extraction or how those deals would be structured. Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) is currently the only major U.S. oil company active in the country, operating through a joint venture with state-owned PDVSA. Chevron's chief financial officer Eimear Bonner said on the company's July 31 earnings call that production in Venezuela grew 15% this year to 280,000 barrels per day, with plans to boost output by up to 50% by 2028 — bringing daily production to roughly 400,000 barrels within two years.

However, Lipow pointed out that Venezuelan output growth will be constrained by export terminal limitations. The analyst noted that tankers face wait times of up to 30 days to load Venezuelan crude due to aging infrastructure and power outages affecting ports. Goldwyn said these terminals "must be expanded to handle more production," adding that "it's unclear who would take on that project."

Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodríguez said Saturday that the 25-year agreement would develop 17 oil fields, with initial output lifting to 1.5 million barrels per day. According to a list submitted to Reuters, most of these reserves are located in eight blocks within the Orinoco heavy oil belt, with the remainder in the Lake Maracaibo region. Goldwyn said the Orinoco fields have virtually no infrastructure available, noting "at best, those fields will need five to seven years to get new production to market."

The deal's long-term durability also faces serious questions. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, said the agreement carries significant political risk in both Washington and Caracas. McNally said a Democratic president taking office in 2029 would likely revisit or terminate the arrangement. He noted that even if Republicans win the next presidential election, a future Venezuelan government could tear up the agreement as Caracas has done before. McNally said that if everything goes smoothly over the coming decades, Venezuelan oil could provide substantial and much-needed supply. But regarding pump prices, he added, "this absolutely isn't a major factor in the near term."