During Monday's Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair attracted fresh buying interest, fluctuating higher and approaching last week's peak. However, it remained below the key 157.00 psychological level, indicating that bullish momentum had not yet fully materialized.
Coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have significantly escalated geopolitical risks, dampening market risk appetite and driving capital flows toward the US dollar as the global reserve currency.
Meanwhile, market concerns that a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive up oil prices and hinder global economic growth have reinforced the dollar's safe-haven appeal, providing upward support for USD/JPY.
Nevertheless, the Japanese yen did not weaken uniformly. On one hand, heightened global risk-off sentiment also supports the yen, a traditional safe-haven currency. On the other hand, market expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue its policy normalization path have tempered one-sided bearish sentiment regarding interest rate differentials.
Additionally, as the exchange rate approaches previous highs, worries have grown that Japanese authorities might intervene to curb excessive yen depreciation, which psychologically restrains bullish momentum. As a result, USD/JPY currently reflects a scenario where the safe-haven attributes of the US dollar and the Japanese yen offset each other, suggesting that short-term movements are more likely to remain range-bound rather than trending decisively.
From a daily chart perspective, USD/JPY has rebounded after a recent pullback from highs and is currently trading above a short-term upward trendline, though it has yet to breach the key resistance level at 157.00. A sustained break above this level would open the door to resistance zones near 158.20 and 159.00. Failure to break higher after multiple attempts could signal the risk of a double-top formation.
Immediate support lies at 155.80, followed by the 154.50 area. A break below the latter would weaken the short-term bullish structure. Technical indicators show the RSI in neutral-to-strong territory, not yet in extreme overbought conditions. The MACD remains above the zero line, but its histogram shows weakening momentum, suggesting a moderation in upward strength.
The 4-hour chart indicates the pair is consolidating within a high-level range. A break below the lower boundary of this range could trigger a short-term correction. Overall, amid mixed fundamental drivers, technical analysis suggests that while the pair retains rebound potential, a decisive break above key resistance would require stronger catalysts.
The core dynamic for USD/JPY currently hinges on the interplay between the US dollar's safe-haven advantage and expectations surrounding Japanese monetary policy. If geopolitical tensions escalate further and significantly impact global risk assets, the dollar may continue to outperform. However, if market focus shifts to the Bank of Japan's policy outlook or potential intervention risks, the yen could gain temporary support.