Escalating tensions in the Middle East are fueling concerns over prolonged and severe energy supply disruptions, positioning European natural gas prices for their largest single-week gain since July. Benchmark futures are up roughly 12% this week, on track for a fifth consecutive weekly advance.
The conflict has disrupted approximately one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, leaving Europe with limited time to stockpile fuel ahead of the winter heating season. Both the United States and Iran are bracing for a protracted confrontation, with Tehran signaling sustained military action and Iranian-backed Houthi forces advancing toward the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The deteriorating geopolitical landscape has also pushed crude oil prices higher. With global gas supply tightening, European buyers are competing aggressively with other regions for LNG cargoes. While current European gas prices remain well below the peaks of the 2022 energy crisis, they have roughly doubled from pre-conflict levels as nations seek to attract shipments.
Europe has been striving to replenish depleted gas inventories before winter arrives. Storage facilities are currently just above 67% full, marking the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2009. Goldman Sachs analysts, including Samantha Dart, noted that the recovery of LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz is progressing far slower than previously anticipated. The bank has revised its fourth-quarter European gas price forecast upward from €53 to €70 per megawatt-hour.
Analysts suggest that Europe must sustain elevated gas prices to keep Asian LNG demand in check, thereby attracting the cargoes needed to rebuild storage ahead of winter. In a related development, Asian LNG prices continue their sharp ascent, breaking through $28 per million British thermal units amid worsening prospects for the Strait of Hormuz.
According to two sources familiar with the matter, Gulf state diplomats and Iranian representatives are scheduled to meet Monday in Salalah, Oman, to push for an agreement concerning the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Iran-related conflict has impaired Qatar's ability to supply its customers, prompting the nation to negotiate long-term LNG procurement contracts with American suppliers.