Abstract

Motorola Solutions will release fiscal Q4 2025 results on February 11, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes the market’s revenue, margin, EBIT, and EPS expectations and compiles recent institutional commentary to frame what could drive the stock’s next move.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Motorola Solutions centers on an estimated revenue of $3.35 billion for the current quarter, with forecast gross profit margin and net profit margin not formally aggregated by the market; projected EBIT is $1.02 billion and projected adjusted EPS is $4.35, both implying double-digit year-over-year growth rates of 14.83% and 11.91%, respectively. Management’s implied trajectory from the prior update suggests sustained high-40s to low-50s gross margin structure and a healthy net margin profile into fiscal Q4, though specific company-issued ranges for gross margin and net margin were not disclosed in the latest guidance.

The main business is expected to remain led by Land Mobile Radio (LMR) mission-critical communications hardware and services, supported by continued growth in Video Security & Access Control and Command Center Software. The most promising segment in this setup is LMR-based mission-critical communications at $2.24 billion last quarter, which underpins backlog conversion and margin resilience.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Motorola Solutions reported revenue of $3.01 billion, a gross profit margin of 51.71%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.56 billion with a net profit margin of 18.68%, and adjusted EPS of $4.06, representing year-over-year growth of 8.56%. Net profit grew quarter-on-quarter by 9.55%, demonstrating operating leverage as revenue advanced in line with expectations.

A notable highlight was the company’s margin discipline, with gross margin above 50.00% and operating performance exceeding consensus, supported by efficient cost control and favorable mix. Main business momentum was anchored by LMR mission-critical communications at $2.24 billion revenue, with additional contributions from Video Security & Access Control at $0.53 billion and Command Center Software at $0.23 billion.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Mission-critical communications (LMR) as the earnings anchor

LMR mission-critical communications remains the anchor of Motorola Solutions’ earnings profile, supplying scale, cash flow, and backlog conversion that stabilize quarter-to-quarter outcomes. With last quarter revenue of $2.24 billion and gross margins above 50.00%, the segment’s hardware, services, and software attachment create a favorable mix to support EBIT progression toward the forecast $1.02 billion. Demand from public safety modernization and life-cycle refresh cycles is intact, and the installed base encourages high renewal rates and service revenue growth. Given the substantial contribution to company revenue, incremental supply chain normalization and deliveries into funded projects are set to determine how much revenue converts in fiscal Q4. Any slip in project timing could shift recognition, but the backlog depth typically cushions short-term swings. The margin profile should remain supported by pricing power, product mix, and higher software and services contribution, aligning with the company’s consistent high-40s to low-50s gross margin framework.

Most promising business: Video Security & Access Control and cloud-connected software

While LMR drives scale, the faster-growing vectors center on Video Security & Access Control and Command Center Software, which together are expanding their share of the portfolio and deepening integrated platform adoption. Video and access control, at $0.53 billion last quarter, is benefitting from continued enterprise and public sector investments in fixed cameras, body-worn devices, and access solutions, coupled with analytics that can justify stronger pricing. Command Center Software at $0.23 billion last quarter adds stickier, recurring revenue through dispatch, records, and real-time operations software, increasingly delivered as cloud-native services. The combined effect is a higher recurring revenue base that can improve predictability and valuation. For the current quarter, the setup implies sustained double-digit revenue momentum year-over-year for these platforms, consistent with the consolidated revenue forecast of $3.35 billion and the EPS forecast of $4.35. Successful cross-sell across LMR-installed customers is a key lever; watch renewal rates, annual contract value expansion, and the pace of migration to cloud to gauge durability.

Stock price swing factors: Bookings, backlog conversion, and software mix

Three factors are likely to shape near-term stock performance. Bookings and backlog conversion will indicate demand visibility and the cadence of revenue recognition into fiscal Q4 and early fiscal 2026. A beat on the $3.35 billion revenue estimate likely requires on-time hardware shipments and strong services pull-through, while any project deferrals could cap upside even if demand remains intact. The margin mix is another determinant: higher software and services proportions can lift gross margin and EBIT toward or above the $1.02 billion estimate, supporting the $4.35 EPS target. Finally, operating expense discipline and working capital management affect cash conversion and perceptions of quality of earnings; sustained mid-to-high teens net margin like last quarter’s 18.68% would be a favorable signal. Investors should monitor commentary around pricing, component costs, and supply chain, as even modest variances can influence gross margin given the hardware base.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the majority view is positive, emphasizing robust demand in public safety, resilient margins, and continued software and video expansion, while a minority notes dependency on government spending cycles and hardware shipment timing. Supportive opinions highlight double-digit year-over-year growth prospects embedded in the current-quarter forecasts—revenue of $3.35 billion, EBIT of $1.02 billion, and EPS of $4.35—alongside margin durability above 50.00% gross and mid-to-high teens net. The bullish thesis anticipates LMR deliveries and growing high-margin software contributions to drive upside risk to EBIT and EPS. On balance, institutions tend to endorse the stock into the print given backlog depth and recurring revenue progress, suggesting that positive execution on bookings and software attach could validate the upbeat estimates.