Abstract

Green Brick Partners will report fiscal results on February 25, 2026, Post Market; this preview consolidates the latest quarterly performance, the company’s current-quarter revenue and EPS projections, margin context, and observable commentary to frame what investors should expect in the print and on guidance.

Market Forecast

The current-quarter baseline points to a revenue estimate of $473.24 million, implying a year-over-year decline of 14.85%, alongside an EPS estimate of $1.63, implying a year-over-year decline of 19.02%; EBIT is projected at $94.58 million, down 20.42% year over year. There is no explicit market or company forecast for gross margin or net margin in the current quarter, but expectations are anchored by the company’s historical profitability profile and volume cadence implied by revenue and EBIT.

The main business is Residential Units, which remains the core revenue engine; the revenue projection of $473.24 million implies a year-over-year decline of 14.85%, with near-term results hinging on closing volumes and backlog conversion into deliveries. Within the same Residential Units portfolio, the most promising opportunity for rebound remains tighter cycle times and inventory-home sales that can accelerate closings; given the single-segment revenue structure, the forecast implies $473.24 million for the quarter, down 14.85% year over year, with management execution on pace and pricing determining upside or downside.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Green Brick Partners delivered $499.09 million in revenue with a 31.15% gross margin, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $77.85 million, a 15.60% net profit margin, and EPS of $1.77, which represented a 10.61% year-over-year decline in EPS and a 4.69% year-over-year decline in revenue; net profit decreased approximately 5% quarter over quarter. One notable highlight was earnings outperformance versus the prior preliminary estimate, with EPS exceeding the earlier projection by $0.28. Residential Units generated $499.09 million of revenue in the quarter, down 4.69% year over year, as growth compared with the prior-year period moderated despite resilient margins.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Residential Units: Closings Pace Drives the Top Line

The current-quarter revenue estimate of $473.24 million implies a sequential contraction from the prior quarter’s $499.09 million. Given the single revenue stream reported, the quarter can be understood primarily through the lens of closings volume, average selling price, and mix within Residential Units. The earnings sensitivity to closings volume is pronounced: even modest shifts in the number and timing of home deliveries can have an outsized impact on reported revenue and EBIT due to the relatively fixed nature of quarter-to-quarter SG&A and construction overhead.

The year-over-year revenue projection of -14.85% suggests that management is likely calibrating production and deliveries to reflect current order-to-close conversion timing. The EPS estimate of $1.63, down 19.02% year over year, points to a degree of margin pressure consistent with the EBIT estimate decline of 20.42%. Given last quarter’s 31.15% gross margin and 15.60% net margin, the key watch item for this print is whether unit economics remain close to that baseline, or whether mix and cycle-time dynamics cause margins to compress more materially than the top-line guide implies.

In practical terms, investors will focus on the cadence of backlog conversion and whether any bottlenecks lengthen cycle times. The operating playbook that supports steady closings includes scheduling subs and inspections, labor availability, and the pace of inventory-home completions. If the backlog conversion remains steady and inventory-home closings come through on schedule, revenue should remain aligned with the $473.24 million estimate; if not, the downside risk would be realized through lower volumes rather than price, given the typical pricing discipline embedded in active communities. The net impact will be reflected not just in revenue, but also in the absorption of fixed costs in the quarter, which can influence EPS even if gross margin percentage holds relatively stable.

Backlog Conversion and Deliveries: Execution Details That Could Surprise

The single most visible swing factor into quarter-end is the balance between backlog deliveries and inventory-home sales. The projected year-over-year declines—revenue down 14.85% and EBIT down 20.42%—imply a cautious stance on closing throughput. Historically, when construction cycle times compress, backlogs can convert more quickly, which offsets top-line pressure and supports margins via better SG&A leverage. Conversely, if any punch-list or inspection delays push a tail of closings beyond quarter-end, revenue recognition shifts accordingly, pulling a portion of EBIT and EPS into the subsequent quarter.

This is why the EPS estimate’s steeper decline relative to revenue (-19.02% versus -14.85%) bears watching: it embeds either slightly lower gross margin percentage than the prior quarter or lighter operating leverage. If revenue lands near expectations but the EPS shortfall widens, investors will infer that gross margin or overhead absorption came in softer than anticipated, likely due to a less favorable mix or slower throughput. If EPS lands closer to the recent run-rate of $1.77 despite lower revenue, the read-through would be constructive for margin resilience and cost control, particularly if EBIT tracks near the $94.58 million estimate.

Given last quarter’s outcome—where revenue and EPS topped prior estimates—there is precedent for operational outperformance versus conservative baselines. However, the quarter-on-quarter net income softness last time (approximately -5%) also underscores that the cadence of closings can oscillate. Investors should therefore pay close attention to management’s commentary on weekly closing trajectories during the quarter, any reference to build times, and the proportion of closings tied to inventory homes, which can complete on a more predictable timetable than pure build-to-order activity.

Profitability and Earnings Sensitivity: Margins, Mix, and SG&A

Margin composition will be an essential focus. Last quarter’s 31.15% gross margin and 15.60% net margin set a robust benchmark. The projected decline in EBIT and EPS this quarter implies either a normalization of gross margin toward a multi-quarter average or a period of softer overhead leverage. Because cost of sales and SG&A do not always scale linearly with unit deliveries within a single quarter, even a small shortfall in revenue versus the $473.24 million estimate can contribute disproportionately to EPS compression.

The interplay between price and cost will be scrutinized. If construction input costs and cycle times continue to hold close to prior-quarter levels, margins could prove steadier than the earnings model implies. Alternatively, a mix shift toward lower-priced homes to sustain absorption rates—if present—could pressure gross margins as a percentage, even if dollar gross profit remains resilient. On the overhead line, the extent of SG&A leverage will depend on controllable items such as marketing spend and community-support costs; if these are held in check amid lower deliveries, EPS may compress less than the top-line decline would suggest.

EBIT’s forecast decline of 20.42% year over year is the cleanest signal for operating profitability and will be a key benchmark in the release. A result materially above the $94.58 million projection would indicate that gross margin percentage and/or SG&A leverage surprised positively; a result below it would imply either lower throughput, margin pressure, or both. When triangulated with reported gross margin and commentary on pricing, investors will be able to infer how much of the EPS variance stems from volume versus unit economics. This quarter’s stock reaction is likely to be most sensitive to these profitability line items rather than revenue alone.

Cash Generation and Balance-Sheet Discipline: Reading Through the P&L

Although the P&L metrics dominate headline reactions, bottom-line outcomes will be interpreted through the lens of how effectively the company converts earnings into operating cash flow. In the prior quarter, net margin of 15.60% provided a supportive base for cash generation, subject to the timing of land spending and inventory build. If revenue comes in near $473.24 million and margins remain constructive, the quality of earnings should remain a focal point, particularly how working-capital movements align with deliveries.

A quarter that pairs stable gross margin with on-plan closing volumes typically yields favorable working-capital dynamics as construction-in-progress converts into cash receipts. Conversely, if closings are deferred toward period-end, cash collection may lag, even if revenue is recognized. These nuances matter for how investors frame the sustainability of EPS in the context of reinvestment needs for land and community development. While the income statement sets expectations, the accompanying cash flow commentary can validate the durability of EPS projections into subsequent quarters.

What Could Move the Stock on the Print: Delivery Volumes, Margin Color, and EPS Trajectory

Three items are poised to have an outsize impact on the share reaction this quarter. The first is delivery volumes versus the $473.24 million revenue baseline: a beat here would suggest throughput improved, supporting both EBIT and EPS above their respective projections. The second is margin color relative to last quarter’s 31.15% gross margin and 15.60% net margin; investors will focus on whether mix or costs drove any change, and whether that change is transitory or structural. The third is the EPS trajectory into the next quarter: management’s qualitative cues on backlog and cycle times will inform whether the $1.63 estimate reflects a temporary dip or a new run-rate.

For context, last quarter’s EPS of $1.77 beat prior estimates by $0.28, and revenue topped prior projections by $40.31 million. If a similar pattern emerges—revenues modestly ahead of plan and margins stable—EBIT and EPS could outpace the current quarter’s negative year-over-year comps. Conversely, if volumes are at the low end of internal ranges and margin mix is less favorable, the combined effect of lower gross profit dollars and lighter SG&A leverage could drive EPS toward or below the $1.63 mark. As a result, the narrative accompanying the headline numbers may steer the stock more than the absolute deltas, especially commentary that clarifies how backlog conversion is trending into the next period.

Analyst Opinions

Between January 1, 2026 and February 18, 2026, we did not identify mainstream analyst preview notes or rating changes that provided clear bullish or bearish directional calls specific to the upcoming quarter. In the absence of consistent, attributable previews within this window, there is insufficient basis to compute a statistically meaningful bullish-versus-bearish ratio, and institutional views remain inconclusive. Given this, the pragmatic interpretation is to anchor expectations to the observable forecast baselines—revenue of $473.24 million (down 14.85% year over year), EBIT of $94.58 million (down 20.42% year over year), and EPS of $1.63 (down 19.02% year over year)—and assess the print against these markers.

Without a documented majority view to cite, the analytical emphasis shifts to the determinants that would typically inform analyst revisions after the release: delivery volumes versus plan, the durability of unit margins in light of product mix, and the translation of operating performance into EPS. Should results land ahead of the revenue and EPS baselines with supportive margin disclosure, such an outcome would typically skew subsequent commentary positively; a miss on revenue compounded by margin compression would tend to elicit caution in post-earnings notes. In short, while no prevailing stance is evident in the specified window, the quantitative thresholds outlined above define the pivot points against which post-report opinions are likely to coalesce.