Key Insights:
Debunking the "China Uninvestable" Narrative: Warren Buffett put it best: "If socks are cheap, I'll buy lots of socks; if stocks are cheap, I'll buy lots of stocks." Labeling China as "uninvestable" is a flawed concept. Any business becomes investable at the right price. In my 44-year investment career, I've never heard any market described this way.
China May Have Entered a "Multi-Year Bull Market": By 2030, China's GDP will likely surpass America's due to its massive population, currency appreciation potential, and technological output. Even if half my predictions come true, Chinese stocks may have already begun a prolonged bull cycle.
Rejecting the "Japanization" Comparison: China won't repeat Japan's deflation crisis. Unlike Japan, China boasts $1 trillion annual trade surpluses, reasonable 15x P/E ratios (vs Japan's 75x bubble peak), and fundamentally sound banking systems.
China's "MIT" Competitive Edge - Manufacturing (M): China produces 34% of global manufactured goods, supported by unmatched infrastructure ecosystems including ports, high-speed rail, and power plants. No nation can replicate or replace China's industrial base within 30 years.
China's "MIT" Edge - Innovation & Talent (I&T): Chinese innovation is severely underestimated. One-third of engineers in Silicon Valley R&D centers are Chinese. With 30 million STEM graduates under age 35, China's talent pool is unparalleled.
Inevitable Foreign Capital Return: Western investors will inevitably return to China. If Chinese stocks outperform U.S. markets by 10-30% next year, maintaining bearish positions would be "professional suicide" for fund managers facing performance pressures.
On December 19, Wong Kok Hoi, Founder and CIO of APS Asset Management, delivered a keynote at the Alpha Summit co-hosted by Wall Street Journal and CEIBS, analyzing post-2025 China opportunities.
With 44 years of investment experience, Wong established APS in 1995 as one of Asia's premier hedge funds. Known for contrarian insights, he systematically dismantled misconceptions about China through his "MIT" framework (Manufacturing, Innovation, Talent).
Key Arguments:
The "Uninvestable" Fallacy: Wong criticized the coordinated "information warfare" against China's economic narrative, calling the "uninvestable" label either politically motivated or investment-illiterate. He noted China's households hold $22 trillion in low-yield deposits while ignoring equity markets offering dividend yields multiples higher - an unsustainable gap signaling temporary "confidence deficit."
No Repeat of Japan's Crisis: Drawing from his 1980s Tokyo experience, Wong highlighted critical differences: China's resilient currency, massive trade surpluses (vs Japan's export-crippling yen surge), reasonable valuations (15x vs Japan's 75x bubble P/E), and healthy banking systems facing no solvency crises.
The MIT Advantage: Manufacturing: China's 34% global manufacturing share combines with complete infrastructure ecosystems impossible to replicate within decades. Innovation: Silicon Valley's reliance on Chinese engineers proves inherent innovative capacity, now manifesting in semiconductors, AI (e.g. DeepSeek), and research paper output. Talent: China's 30 million young STEM graduates create an "unbeatable" human capital advantage.
Capital Flow Dynamics: While geopolitics temporarily diverted some Western pensions, Wong observed growing interest from Asian sovereign funds (GIC, Temasek), Middle Eastern capital, and even Western private banks. Performance pressures will ultimately force returns - "professional suicide" to ignore potential 10-30% China outperformance.
2030 Outlook: Wong projected China's likely GDP leadership by 2030 through technological transformation (semiconductors, AI, biotech), demographic scale, and currency appreciation. He concluded Chinese equities may have already entered a sustained bull market, representing compelling investment value.