Abstract

First Majestic Silver will report quarterly results on February 19, 2026, Pre-Market, with investor attention on how production gains intersect with volatile silver prices to shape revenue, margins, and EPS momentum.

Market Forecast

Consensus based on company-aligned projections indicates First Majestic Silver’s current-quarter revenue of $404.00 million, up 154.09% year over year, and EPS of $0.23, up 531.94% year over year; there is no explicit consensus for gross profit margin or net profit for this quarter. The company’s main business remains silver and gold concentrate and doré sales; silver operations lead the growth narrative with recently disclosed Q4 production improving, and the near-term outlook balances higher volumes with commodity-price volatility. The silver segment appears most promising by scale and operational momentum, with segment revenue of $160.18 million last quarter and Q4 silver output up 77% year over year as reported operationally.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, First Majestic Silver reported revenue of $285.06 million, a gross profit margin of 52.46%, net profit attributable to shareholders of $26.98 million with a net profit margin of 9.46%, and EPS of $0.07, with year-over-year growth of 95.12% for revenue and 333.33% for EPS. A notable financial highlight was the quarter-on-quarter change in net profit attributable to shareholders, which decreased by 48.66%, illustrating the sensitivity of earnings to realized metal prices and cost timing despite high gross profitability. On the business side, silver led the revenue mix at $160.18 million, followed by gold at $95.87 million; management disclosed Q4 silver production of 4.2 million ounces, up 77% year over year, supporting scale-driven operating leverage.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Silver and gold operations underpin revenue and margin trajectory

First Majestic Silver’s core revenue drivers are silver and gold, which together account for the majority of sales, supported by smaller contributions from zinc, lead, and copper. In the last reported period, silver revenue totaled $160.18 million and gold revenue reached $95.87 million, reflecting the company’s concentration in precious metals. The current quarter’s revenue projection of $404.00 million and EPS of $0.23 imply that volume gains and improved throughput are expected to align with favorable average realized prices over the quarter, although intra-quarter price swings can affect final realizations. Gross profitability remains a focal point; last quarter’s 52.46% gross margin indicates an efficient cost base relative to realized prices, yet it is susceptible to metal price volatility and timing of shipments.

Operational disclosures for Q4 indicate 4.2 million ounces of silver produced, up 77% year over year, and 7.8 million silver-equivalent ounces versus 5.7 million a year earlier, suggesting meaningful operating leverage. This production base provides a tailwind for revenue conversion if realized prices hold near or above the quarterly average implied in the forecast. However, the late-January and early-February decline in silver spot prices introduces downside risk to the conversion of volume into earnings, particularly to net margin, given the company’s fixed-cost absorption dynamics.

From a cost and margin perspective, sustaining a net profit margin near last quarter’s 9.46% will likely depend on realized price averages and concentrate treatment charges, as well as the proportion of doré versus concentrate sales. With the company’s historical positioning in silver-heavy output, fluctuations in the silver-to-gold price ratio can also influence blended margin, while any incremental by-product credits from base metals (zinc, lead, copper) remain relatively small in revenue impact but can help offset cash costs per ounce.

Most promising business: Silver segment scale and volume momentum

The silver segment stands out by absolute revenue contribution and demonstrated production growth, with $160.18 million in segment revenue last quarter paired with Q4 silver production up 77% year over year. This volume trajectory indicates improved mine sequencing, plant throughput, or recovery rates, and positions the segment for higher operating leverage if average realized silver prices remain supportive. In addition, the silver segment typically benefits from lower unit costs at higher volumes due to fixed-cost dilution, which can bolster gross margin resilience despite price variability.

Nevertheless, quarter-to-date price action in silver has been mixed. Spot prices surpassed $90 per ounce in mid-January and then corrected sharply by late January and early February, pressuring share prices across silver miners. This volatility implies that while volume growth supports the earnings framework, realized prices could narrow the upside versus projection if final settlement prices reflect the late-quarter pullback. The tension between strong volume and price volatility defines the near-term scenario analysis for the silver business’s contribution to consolidated margins and EPS.

Given the company’s silver-heavy mix, the segment remains the primary lever for outperformance relative to the $404.00 million revenue estimate. If average realized prices trend closer to mid-January levels, upside to revenue and gross margin could materialize; if late-January/early-February levels dominate realized pricing, the company may rely more heavily on operational cost control and mix to protect net margin.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter: Commodity prices, realized pricing mix, and earnings quality

The most immediate driver is silver price volatility. Media coverage through January 2026 noted a sharp rally above $90 per ounce followed by notable sell-offs, and subsequent declines in silver-linked equities. This pattern introduces uncertainty into the quarter’s realized prices, which can materially affect revenue and EPS, given the leverage of First Majestic Silver’s P&L to silver. Investors will look for commentary on price hedging, if any, and the proportion of sales priced earlier in the quarter versus later to gauge realized average pricing.

A second driver is the realized sales mix between doré and concentrate, which affects treatment and refining charges and, ultimately, gross and net margins. With last quarter’s gross margin at 52.46%, investors will monitor whether improved throughput and ore grades can maintain similar unit economics against the backdrop of lower spot prices late in the period. Unit cost trends, including energy and consumables, and any temporary maintenance or throughput constraints, will also be critical to interpreting sequential margin movement.

A third factor is earnings quality and guidance tone. Last quarter’s net profit attributable to shareholders of $26.98 million masked a quarter-on-quarter decline of 48.66% despite solid gross margin, underscoring the sensitivity of net results to price timing, costs below gross profit, and potentially non-operating items. The market is likely to focus on the sustainability of EPS versus the projected $0.23 and clarity on operating run-rate into the next quarter. Clear disclosure on production cadence, cost guidance, and capital allocation can help investors contextualize whether any beat or miss is driven by sustainable operations or transient price effects.

Analyst Opinions

Within the January 2026 to February 2026 window, market commentary has skewed cautious due to commodity price volatility, with multiple reports highlighting a late-January and early-February slump in silver prices that weighed on silver miners’ shares. This cautious majority view reflects concern that lower end-of-period prices could compress realized averages and margins despite strong Q4 production volumes. Media coverage noted that silver miners, including First Majestic Silver, fell during these pullbacks, shaping a near-term conservative stance among institutions tracking the space.

Commentary surrounding the mid-January rally above $90 per ounce offered a more constructive counterpoint, but subsequent sell-offs and the follow-on declines in silver-linked equities reinforced a guarded tone into the print. Against this backdrop, the majority outlook anticipates a solid top line given Q4 volume momentum, while warning that EPS and net margin could be more sensitive to late-quarter pricing dynamics. Analysts focusing on operational execution will likely look for confirmation that cost control and throughput improvements can buffer the impact of any realized price headwinds, while those emphasizing macro drivers will keep an eye on the trajectory of silver prices post-report.

Overall, the prevailing cautious perspective expects First Majestic Silver’s headline revenue to align with the company-aligned estimate of $404.00 million and EPS around $0.23 if realized prices average favorably across the quarter, but it highlights downside risk to net margin and EPS if late-period pricing dominates settlements. The majority view emphasizes monitoring realized price commentary, production mix, and cost run-rate for signals on the sustainability of margin performance into the next quarter.