Geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, has rejected mediation proposals, while Iran's Foreign Minister, Alireza Araghchi, denied any recent contact with U.S. Presidential Envoy Witkoff. An Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson stated that the military would "pursue" Khamenei. Additionally, Iran's President issued a formal statement mourning the death of the former parliament speaker and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, in recent terrorist attacks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed the death of Basij militia commander Gholamreza Soleimani. Reports indicate that Iran has designated multiple replacements for key positions. Overall, geopolitical conditions show no improvement, and markets continue to focus on liquidity tightening.

Futures Performance and Volume: On March 17, 2026, the most-traded gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 1,120.00 yuan per gram and closed at 1,116.20 yuan per gram, down 0.19% from the previous close. Daily trading volume reached 41,087 lots, with open interest at 129,725 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 1,114.36 yuan and closed at 1,116.20 yuan, down 0.16% from the afternoon session.

The most-traded silver futures contract opened at 20,400.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 20,308.00 yuan, up 0.03% from the prior close. Daily volume stood at 550,109 lots, with open interest at 218,466 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20,309 yuan and closed at 20,088 yuan, down 1.08% from the afternoon close.

U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads: On March 17, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.204%, up 0.39 basis points from the previous day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields narrowed to 0.526%, down 0.03 basis points.

Shanghai Futures Exchange Precious Metals Positions and Volume Changes: For the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 2,001 lots, while short positions fell by 288 lots. Total trading volume for gold contracts declined by 32.08% from the previous day to 237,995 lots. For silver, in the Ag2508 contract, long positions rose by 1,112 lots and short positions increased by 610 lots. Total silver contract volume dropped 27.41% to 888,417 lots.

Precious Metals ETF Holdings: Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.85 tonnes to 1,070.71 tonnes. Silver ETF holdings fell by 104 tonnes to 15,356 tonnes.

Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking: The domestic premium for gold stood at 6.32 yuan per gram, while silver showed a discount of 8.66 yuan per kilogram. The gold-silver ratio for the most-traded SHFE contracts was approximately 54.96, down 0.23% from the prior day. The international gold-silver ratio was 63.17, up 2.00%.

Fundamentals: On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, T+d gold trading volume decreased 23.82% to 39,198 kilograms, while silver volume fell 40.16% to 172,512 kilograms. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms; silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms.

Strategy: Gold: Neutral Market risk sentiment remains subdued due to geopolitical events. Gold prices are expected to trade within a range recently, with the Au2604 contract fluctuating between 1,100 yuan and 1,130 yuan per gram.

Silver: Neutral Silver prices have declined alongside gold, and with cautious market sentiment, silver is also anticipated to trade in a range. The Ag2606 contract may fluctuate between 19,500 yuan and 21,500 yuan per kilogram.

Arbitrage: Sell the gold-silver ratio on rallies. Options: Pause.

Risks: Overseas liquidity risk. Continued exit of speculative positions.