Boosted by holiday spending and trade-in policies, consumer activity is accelerating its recovery. The faster issuance of special bonds has spurred infrastructure project initiations, leading to improved production and sales in the engineering machinery sector, providing strong support from the investment side. The new export orders index has shown a notable rebound, indicating improved external demand... Recently released macro data points to positive signals, suggesting a favorable start for China's economy in the first quarter.
Consumer spending continues to recover. Data from Suning.com shows that from April 4 to 6, store foot traffic nationwide increased by 62% compared to the previous period, with sales rising by 33.5%. During the Qingming Festival holiday, travel demand was robust, with sales of travel-related items such as AI imaging smartphones, action cameras, and smart wristbands increasing by over 50% month-on-month... Since the beginning of the year, the sustained recovery in consumption has been reflected across various datasets.
Invoice data indicates that from January 1 to March 25, service consumption maintained relatively rapid growth. Revenue from homestay services and residential services increased by 15.3% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively. The extended Spring Festival holiday boosted the cultural and tourism markets, with active engagement in cultural tourism and recreational activities. Revenue for travel agencies and related services, as well as culture, sports, and entertainment industries, grew by 14.3% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively. The vitality of service consumption is evident, with the holiday economy showing a significant pull effect.
The sustained positive sentiment in the service sector further confirms the healthy trend of consumption recovery. Data released on March 31 shows that the Business Activity Index for the service sector was 50.2% in March, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The Services Business Activity Expectation Index stood at 54.8%, remaining at a relatively high level.
In the first quarter, driven by the extended Spring Festival holiday and trade-in policies, both total retail sales of consumer goods and service consumption showed a good recovery momentum. The growth of consumption in the second quarter will depend more on the recovery of household income expectations and the sustainability of consumer willingness to spend.
Excavators are essential for infrastructure construction and serve as a barometer for observing the progress of infrastructure projects and fixed-asset investment indicators. The latest excavator index reveals that in February, the national operating rate for port equipment was 33.61%, a year-on-year increase of 3.91 percentage points, with workload growth rate rising 12.13% year-on-year. Despite the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, port equipment achieved year-on-year growth in both operating rates and workload. In February, seven types of specialized equipment, including container handlers, pavers, and mixer trucks, saw year-on-year increases in their operating rates.
Statistics from major manufacturers show that from January to February, sales of truck cranes totaled 3,090 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.71%. Domestic sales reached 1,550 units, up 2.38% year-on-year, while exports amounted to 1,540 units, growing 9.3% year-on-year. Analysis suggests that accelerated special bond issuance has led to a marginal recovery in indicators related to infrastructure and construction project initiations. On one hand, the issuance of new special bonds for construction projects has accelerated; on the other, major engineering projects are being implemented faster, strengthening infrastructure investment in March.
Regarding manufacturing investment, invoice data indicates that from January 1 to March 25, corporate spending on purchasing machinery and equipment increased by 8.4% year-on-year, maintaining a relatively fast growth trend. Purchases of machinery and equipment by the information technology services and scientific research and technical services sectors grew by 15.8% and 27.2% year-on-year, respectively, showing strong momentum for equipment upgrades. Overall, supported by profit recovery, equipment renewal policies, and expansion in high-end manufacturing, manufacturing investment is expected to continue its slight upward trend.
Leading indicators show a clear improvement in external demand. Data shows that the new export orders index within the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.1% in March, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from February. High-frequency data suggests that global manufacturing remains in an expansionary phase, with overall external demand being relatively strong. Despite the impact of the shifting Spring Festival holiday timing, exports in March still provided a significant boost to domestic manufacturing sentiment.
Shipping market data also releases positive signals of strengthening external demand. Data shows that as of April 3, the China Containerized Freight Index stood at 1,184.70 points, up 4.0% from the previous period (March 27). The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index was 1,854.96 points, an increase of 28.19 points from the previous period. Experts believe that the continuous improvement in China's economic prosperity and the consolidation of the economic recovery trend provide solid support for the stable development of China's export container shipping market.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, it is anticipated that exports will maintain a high growth trajectory, benefiting from China's advantages in "new three" industries.