The AUKUS (Australia-United Kingdom-United States) trilateral security partnership was established during the Biden administration. Since reports emerged in June that the Trump administration would review the AUKUS program, and recent revelations that Secretary of State Rubio privately assured Australia that "the agreement will not be terminated," the fate of AUKUS remains uncertain.

A September 21 report indicates that as questions arise about AUKUS's future, the comprehensive U.S. review of the agreement may impose stricter conditions regarding technology transfers, cost-sharing arrangements, and new concessions from Australia.

Analysts suggest that Rubio's recent statements indicate the U.S. review of AUKUS may involve restructuring the agreement's content, focusing on ensuring benefits for American industry and the U.S. military rather than completely abandoning the accord. However, while "complete cancellation" appears to be off the table, the U.S. may still "streamline" the AUKUS program or seek additional concessions from Australia.

Recently, Australia has been seeking to strengthen U.S. support for AUKUS, announcing plans to invest nearly $10 billion in building a defense center for U.S. military submarine maintenance. While experts believe this move will help the Albanese government maintain momentum for the AUKUS project, other concerns remain.

Australian officials warn that the Trump administration's "transactional mindset" may mean that the importance of commitments is secondary to "performance metrics at any given time." "This means any agreements reached are subject to renegotiation, regardless of previous arrangements—if more can be extracted from allies, it's worth pursuing."

In June, the Pentagon confirmed it was reviewing the AUKUS project to ensure the Biden administration's initiative aligns with President Trump's "America First" agenda. This news immediately sparked anxiety in the United Kingdom and Australia.

On September 12, sources revealed that Secretary of State Rubio recently privately assured Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles that the AUKUS agreement would continue and would not be terminated.

Troy Lee-Brown, a researcher at the University of Western Australia's Defense and Security Institute, believes Rubio's assurance indicates that the U.S. review is more likely to result in agreement restructuring—including strengthened safeguards for technology transfers and cost-sharing—rather than complete cancellation.

Lee-Brown stated that the "America First" approach will focus on ensuring U.S. industrial interests and ensuring that providing Virginia-class nuclear submarines to Australia won't significantly delay U.S. Navy requirements. He added that bipartisan consensus exists in the U.S. that the AUKUS project is central to Indo-Pacific deterrence, making complete abandonment unlikely.

"The broader strategic logic of strengthening allied underwater capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region remains compelling enough to counter the Trump administration's protectionist impulses," Lee-Brown said, suggesting Rubio's "positive stance" may reflect U.S. recognition of Australia's significant financial investment in AUKUS infrastructure.

On September 14, Australian Prime Minister Albanese announced that Australia would invest AUD 12 billion (approximately USD 8 billion) to build a defense center near Perth for naval vessel construction and nuclear submarine operations.

Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Marles revealed that this funding would develop the Henderson Defense Precinct south of Perth, Western Australia, to build surface vessels and maintenance facilities for the Australian Defense Force. Under the AUKUS plan, Marles expects Henderson Defense Precinct facilities will be used by U.S. forces for submarine maintenance work.

While complete cancellation of the AUKUS program appears unlikely, Manoj Harjani, a researcher at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, anticipates the U.S. review will "streamline" the program, particularly targeting the agreement's "Pillar II."

In the AUKUS plan, the well-known nuclear submarine agreement is called AUKUS "Pillar I," while "Pillar II" focuses on critical technology areas including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cyber capabilities, and hypersonics.

Harjani stated that "Pillar II" may face criticism for having "an extensive and unfocused list lacking priorities and funding arrangements." Additionally, this review may prompt Trump to seek Australian concessions, particularly regarding how Australia's submarine purchases serve U.S. strategic objectives in the region.

Despite Rubio's assurances, analysts remain cautious about the Secretary of State's influence in the AUKUS review.

Elbridge Colby, currently the Pentagon's "number three" official serving as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is leading this review assessment. Among Trump's senior policy officials, some have expressed frank skepticism about the AUKUS program, including Colby.

Nishank Motwani, senior fellow and Director of Alliance Strategy at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, noted that some congressional members feel "frustrated." In July, House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Chairman John Moolenaar wrote to Defense Secretary Hegseth reaffirming support for AUKUS.

Motwani stated that Albanese's Henderson Defense Precinct development plan will "satisfy" the U.S. side, demonstrating Australia's willingness to invest in defense and countering critics' claims that Australia is "jeopardizing" the AUKUS agreement.

In September 2021, the U.S., UK, and Australia announced the formation of the AUKUS military alliance without informing France or the EU. As the alliance's initial cooperation project, the U.S. and UK would provide nuclear submarine technology to Australia, helping build Australia's nuclear submarine fleet. Australia consequently canceled its multi-billion-dollar conventional submarine procurement agreement with France. France expressed strong dissatisfaction and recalled its ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia.

In November 2021, the three nations formally signed the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Information Exchange Agreement, establishing the foundation for sharing classified nuclear submarine information. If cooperation is finalized, Australia would become the seventh country to possess nuclear-powered submarines. This move aims to "counter China's growing military presence in the Pacific region."

On March 13, 2023, then-President Biden met with then-British Prime Minister Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Albanese at the U.S. Naval Base in San Diego, California, to discuss AUKUS and formally announce the plan to equip Australia with nuclear submarines.

According to the plan, the U.S. will sell three Virginia-class nuclear submarines to Australia starting in the early 2030s, with potential additional sales of two more submarines. Simultaneously, the three nations will collaborate on developing new nuclear submarines, with the UK and Australia expected to deploy them in the late 2030s and early 2040s respectively. The entire program is expected to complete by 2055, costing $245 billion.

Under the agreement, the U.S. and UK will also deploy submarines in Western Australia to help train Australian personnel, with operations potentially beginning as early as 2027. Biden emphasized that while these submarines are nuclear-powered, they will not carry nuclear weapons. However, political analysts have encouraged the three nations to advance the program's second phase, involving hypersonic weapons and other rapidly deployable weapons.

The three nations' insistence on nuclear submarine cooperation has sparked growing international concern. Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating stated bluntly that Australia should withdraw from AUKUS, arguing that U.S.-constructed groups and cliques serving its "Indo-Pacific strategy" do not benefit Australia. He called continued cooperation "a tragedy for Australia" and urged abandoning AUKUS nuclear submarine procurement plans, stating that nuclear submarine cooperation cannot meet Australia's military defense needs, serves entirely U.S. interests, and significantly increases the risk of military conflict with China.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning previously responded that China has repeatedly expressed serious concerns about U.S.-UK-Australia nuclear submarine cooperation, stating that the trilateral cooperation poses serious nuclear proliferation risks, undermines the international nuclear non-proliferation system, stimulates arms races, and threatens Asia-Pacific peace and stability, facing widespread questioning and opposition from regional countries and the international community. China urges the three nations to abandon Cold War mentality and zero-sum thinking, faithfully fulfill international obligations, and contribute more to regional peace and stability.