Abstract

Morningstar will release its quarterly results on February 12, 2026 Post Market. This preview compiles the latest financial forecast, last quarter’s performance, and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations and key drivers into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Morningstar’s current quarter, based on the company’s latest forecast set, points to revenue of USD 0.63 billion, gross profit margin of 60.85%, net profit margin of 14.84%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.30, with forecast year-over-year growth of 9.23% in revenue and 11.65% in EPS. The main business is projected to be anchored by licensing fees with a steady trajectory, while transaction services and asset management services are expected to contribute incremental growth and margin stability. The most promising segment appears to be licensing fees, with revenue last quarter of USD 0.44 billion and a broadening client footprint supporting mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit YoY growth.

Last Quarter Review

Morningstar reported revenue of USD 0.62 billion, gross profit margin of 60.85%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 91.60 million, net profit margin of 14.84%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.55, with revenue growing 8.43% YoY and adjusted EPS rising 27.50% YoY. A notable highlight was resilient profitability, with EBIT of USD 150.60 million exceeding estimates and robust operating leverage aiding year-over-year expansion. Main business performance featured licensing fees at USD 0.44 billion, transaction services at USD 0.10 billion, and asset management services at USD 0.08 billion, together reinforcing a balanced revenue mix; the YoY growth for total revenue was 8.43%.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Licensing Fees

Licensing fees remain the core revenue engine, supported by recurring contracts across data, research, indexes, and software subscriptions. The segment’s durability stems from multi‑year agreements and pricing power embedded in tiered product bundles. In the current quarter, growth is expected to be consistent with the broader revenue projection, with management’s forecast implying stable client retention and upsell momentum. The margin profile benefits from high gross margins on data and software delivery and disciplined cost control in content and technology. Upside could come from new mandates and enterprise migrations to richer analytics suites, while downside risks would center on budget rationalization at clients and elongated sales cycles.

Most Promising Business: Transaction Services

Transaction services, while smaller, show healthy incremental growth potential as financial workflows digitize and platform usage expands. The prior quarter’s USD 97.70 million demonstrates traction in solutions that monetize activity, with potential contributions from market data distribution and execution‑adjacent tools. In this quarter, expansion is likely to be supported by client adoption and volume‑linked fees, creating a modest tailwind to consolidated revenue. The business can enhance blended margins through scalability as volumes grow without proportionate cost increases. Risks relate to cyclical swings in market activity and regulatory shifts affecting transaction‑related economics, though the diversified client base helps mitigate volatility.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The primary stock price sensitivity will be to top‑line delivery versus the USD 0.63 billion revenue estimate and to EPS versus USD 2.30, with attention to operating efficiency given the strong prior quarter. Investors will focus on whether gross margin sustains at 60.85%, signaling limited cost inflation and favorable mix. Commentary around pipeline and renewals for enterprise clients will be important, as will evidence of cross‑sell into higher‑value software and index solutions. Any updates on investment in data platforms and AI‑enabled analytics could influence sentiment if they point to accelerated product velocity or improved unit economics. Finally, guidance color on the balance of licensing and transaction revenues may shape views on earnings resilience through the year.

Analyst Opinions

A majority of recent institutional commentary leans constructive on Morningstar’s near‑term setup, citing consistent revenue execution and continued margin discipline. Positive views emphasize the durability of subscription‑driven licensing revenues and manageable cost growth supporting EBIT of USD 141.33 million and EPS of USD 2.30 in the current quarter. Commentary also points to balanced growth across segments, with transaction services adding incremental momentum and asset management services contributing steady fees. The constructive stance frames the print as a validation of stable execution, with the key watchpoints being revenue mix, gross margin sustainability, and the trajectory of adjusted EPS against the prior quarter’s beat.