Powell's Dovish Remarks Boost Rate Cut Expectations, Supporting Market Sentiment

Deep News
Yesterday

Last week, COMEX gold prices rose 1.05% to $3,417.20 per ounce, while Shanghai gold main contract declined 0.31% to 773.40 yuan per gram.

On the data front, the U.S. August Markit Composite PMI preliminary reading came in at 55.4, hitting a 9-month high and exceeding expectations of 53.5 and the previous reading of 55.1. The Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading reached 53.3, the highest level since May 2022, surpassing expectations of 49.7 and the previous reading of 49.8. However, the Services PMI preliminary reading of 55.4 marked a 2-month low, though still above expectations of 54.2 but below the previous reading of 55.7.

Regarding interest rate cuts, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting was notably dovish, highlighting three key points: First, he emphasized downside risks to employment, noting that "once it declines, it will accelerate and deteriorate," while persistent upward inflation risks exist but are relatively small. Second, he indicated that current conditions have met the criteria for monetary policy adjustments, sending a relatively clear signal of imminent rate cuts. Third, the monetary policy framework adjustment abandons the flexible inflation targeting (FAIT) approach in favor of a simple 2% inflation target, while maintaining focus on employment market "shortages."

Additionally, the latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 15.9% probability of keeping rates unchanged in September, with an 84.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut. For October, there's a 7.6% probability of keeping rates unchanged, a 48.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and a 44.1% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.

Overall, Powell's dovish remarks at last Friday's global central bank annual meeting have strengthened investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Market participants are watching to see if prices will test the resistance at recent highs again.

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