NEBIUS closed at USD 148.22, down 12.65%.

The options market delivered a starkly bearish verdict, with a colossal $4.19 million bear put spread and a massive $4.76 million outright put purchase dominating the tape. Total bearish premium outlay hit $8.95 million against a mere $1.58 million in bullish flow, painting a decisive institutional conviction that NBIS faces elevated downside risk.

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Options Indicators

NBIS is showing extremely high implied volatility at 162.98%, and with an IV percentile of 96.81%, current option volatility sits near the top of its historical range. That places volatility firmly in an elevated regime, meaning options are priced expensively rather than cheaply. The IV/HV ratio of 1.18 also suggests implied volatility is running above realized volatility, reinforcing the view that the market is demanding a sizable premium for near-term uncertainty and event risk. The Call/Put volume ratio is 0.77.

Large Trades

A bear put spread worth $4.19 million stood out as one of the day’s key institutional trades, with the trader buying 1,500 September 18, 2026 $135.00 puts and simultaneously selling 1,500 September 18, 2026 $90.00 puts. This is a net debit bearish spread, indicating the trader paid premium upfront to position for downside while capping the maximum payoff below $90.00. With both strikes currently out of the money versus the $148.22 reference stock price, the structure points to a defined-risk directional bearish bet rather than outright crash protection, expressing a view that NBIS could decline materially over time but within a measured target zone.

A PUT buy worth $4.76 million was the single largest leg of the day, consisting of 33,993 contracts of the July 31, 2026 $120.00 put purchased outright. This single-leg put buy is bearish on direction, with the strike sitting out of the money relative to the current $148.22 share price. As an outright premium-paid position, it signals a clear downside view and gives the buyer leveraged exposure to a drop in NBIS, while also potentially serving as portfolio protection against a meaningful pullback into next summer.

Overall sentiment in NBIS large trades was clearly bearish, with total bearish flow reaching $8.95 million versus just $1.58 million in bullish flow, for a net bearish difference of $7.37 million. The directional judgment is decisively negative, as the dominant trades were both premium-paid downside put structures, including a defined-risk bear put spread and a large outright put purchase. That pattern suggests traders were willing to spend meaningful premium to position for weakness rather than collect income, pointing to conviction that NBIS faces elevated downside risk over the medium term.

Strategy Reference

Given the extreme IV percentile, premium sellers may consider a bear call spread above the $180.00 strike to capitalize on rich volatility while maintaining a neutral-to-bearish posture; for those seeking downside exposure with defined risk, the institutional bear put spread structure provides a template for mitigating cost basis.