Oil prices edged higher as strong spot demand pulled against easing Middle East supply disruptions and progress toward reopening the strait. However, repeated disappointments in the past have left traders skeptical.
WTI settled below $93 per barrel after choppy trading, having risen as much as 4.5% intraday. A US official said President Trump is willing to grant Iran sanctions relief and unfreeze frozen funds based on concrete progress on the Iranian nuclear issue. Traders carefully assessed information regarding a US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials are privately pessimistic about reaching a deal before the November US midterm elections. Trump said the US and Iran held talks through mediators on Monday, after the US president had previously rejected a proposal from Tehran.
Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said: "Without a concrete deal or an end to the conflict, the market is quickly fading its response to headlines, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for higher oil prices to pull back." Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline is said to have resumed oil exports after completing repairs, putting pressure on oil prices.
Although negotiations have resumed, the fundamental outlook is becoming increasingly bullish. Key indicators measuring supply tightness have risen sharply in recent days, signaling strong demand for crude that can be delivered quickly. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said: "Without a clear end to the Middle East conflict, the risk balance remains tilted toward higher oil prices."
WTI for November delivery rose 0.2% to settle at $92.60 per barrel. Brent for November delivery rose 0.9% to settle at $105.28 per barrel. The November futures contract expires on Wednesday. The more actively traded December contract settled at $97.83 per barrel.