Option Focus | Alibaba’s $144K Long-Dated Call Buy at $115 Strike Leads Out-of-the-Money Upside Bets as IV/HV Hits 1.47

Option Witch
Yesterday

Alibaba closed at $100.36, down 1.12%. The session’s most notable options activity was decisively bullish, anchored by a single $144,000 long-dated call purchase at the $115 strike. This order led a wider pattern of out-of-the-money upside positioning, with no meaningful bearish large trades appearing in the flow. Traders showed a clear willingness to pay premium for rally exposure, suggesting a constructive short-term bias despite the modest stock decline.

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Options Indicators

Alibaba’s implied volatility is 47.42%, and with an IV percentile of 65.74%, current option pricing sits in a neutral volatility zone rather than an extreme high or low. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 1.47 shows implied volatility is running notably above historical volatility, indicating the options market is embedding a meaningful premium over recent realized movement, though not yet at a level that would clearly qualify as expensive based on percentile terms. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.73, reinforcing the bullish tone reflected in the bulk options flow.

Large Trades

A call buy worth $144,000 targeted the 115.0 strike expiring on 2026-11-27, making it the largest displayed trade of the session. With Alibaba referenced at 100.08, this contract was out of the money, so the buyer was positioning for upside beyond the current stock level rather than locking in intrinsic value. The trade’s bullish nature suggests a directional bet on a meaningful advance over the longer-dated horizon, with the buyer accepting premium risk in exchange for leveraged upside exposure.

A call buy worth $15,000 targeted the 130.0 strike expiring on 2026-11-20. This was also an out-of-the-money call with the strike set well above the current reference price of 100.08, pointing to another bullish upside expression. The trade appears to reflect a higher-conviction move target but with a smaller premium outlay, indicating a speculative upside wager that Alibaba could stage a strong rally into that expiration.

Overall sentiment from the bulk options flow is clearly bullish. The large-trade activity was entirely concentrated in out-of-the-money call buying, which typically reflects expectations for upside acceleration rather than defensive positioning or income collection. With no meaningful bearish large trades showing up and both highlighted orders expressing upside participation, the options flow suggests traders are leaning toward a constructive outlook on Alibaba and are willing to pay premium for rally exposure.

Strategy Reference

For a lower assignment probability, a seller could consider the 85.0 strike put, which sits well below the current price and outside the dominant bullish flow; alternatively, a bull call spread using the 115.0/130.0 strikes from the highlighted trades would cap margin while maintaining long upside exposure.

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