March 24: On Tuesday (March 24), international gold prices rebounded from their lows and closed higher, with a late-session surge following media reports that the US is drafting a one-month ceasefire plan. Gold has consecutively closed above the 144-day moving average and formed long lower shadow candlesticks, indicating a bullish reversal pattern. This suggests the recent decline has clearly bottomed out, and a rebound is expected, with targets at $4,700 or $5,100.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened in the Asian session at $4,412.83 per ounce, initially dipped to a daily low of $4,305.98 around 10 a.m., then fluctuated higher. A rapid surge after 4 a.m. the next day pushed prices above the daily resistance and the opening price, reaching a daily high of $4,484.03. Gold ultimately stabilized and closed at $4,474.34, with a daily range of $178.05, a gain of $61.51, or 1.39%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday (March 25): International gold opened stronger, extending the late-session rebound momentum from the previous day. A weaker US dollar index and crude oil prices in early trading provided some support. Additionally, reports that mediators from Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are pushing for a US-Iran meeting within 48 hours, with the US proposing a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement aimed at ending the conflict, have shifted geopolitical risks and boosted gold prices.
However, these factors remain speculative. Before any substantive negotiation results emerge, the rebound in gold prices is expected to be limited, potentially leading to a period of consolidation and volatility near the bottom.
Recent blockades in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and shifting market expectations for the Federal Reserve from rate cuts to potential hikes within the year. Against a backdrop of rising US dollar and Treasury yields, gold's safe-haven function has temporarily weakened. Although gold has halted its sharp decline and rebounded, it still faces significant pressure from the high-interest-rate environment. Short-term trends are highly dependent on the next developments in the Middle East situation.
Over a longer timeframe, the worst-case scenario would be a complete blockade of the strait, but this is unlikely due to Iran's limited economic capacity to sustain such an action and the risk of international countermeasures. The most probable outcome is periodic disruptions and selective shipping bans until the US-Israel-Iran conflict de-escalates.
Therefore, the worst may already be priced in for gold, and the recent low may represent a bottom. Any further decline could present a better entry opportunity. Even if oil prices continue to rise, it could create a stronger foundation for a future bull market.
Comparing the periods from 2020 to 2022 and July 2007 to August 2008, both of which saw oil prices double, gold subsequently entered bull markets. Thus, the current rise in oil prices may be setting the stage for a bull market in the second half of this year or next year.
Regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, recent comments from officials, while not ruling out future hikes, consistently indicate no rate increases this year, with a bias towards cuts. Some even project four rate cuts by 2026. Given the recent significant decline in gold prices, which may have already absorbed hawkish expectations, and with the overall cycle still favoring rate cuts, gold retains a bullish outlook. Therefore, watching the current low levels remains crucial for positioning for a potential push towards $6,000 or higher in the second half of the year.
Technically, on a monthly chart, gold has been weak this month, erasing gains from the previous three months and threatening to reverse the bull trend. However, it has not decisively broken below the key ascending trendline support and has rebounded above it. A monthly close above this level would suggest continued consolidation followed by a renewed upward move.
On the weekly chart, after declining further, gold has rebounded from a bottom. A weekly close maintaining this pattern would support a rebound towards the $5,000 level.
On the daily chart, gold formed a bullish reversal pattern again yesterday and opened stronger today, extending this expectation. However, it still faces resistance from multiple moving averages. A test of these levels could lead to a pullback, but a break above would turn these levels into support and strengthen the rebound momentum.
For specific real-time trading guidance, refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level references are provided below. Exact entry and exit points are subject to real-time account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are near $4,440 or $4,400; resistance levels are near $4,600 or $4,715. Silver: Support levels to watch are near $70.80 or $68.20; resistance levels are near $74.85 or $77.60.