Title
Earning Preview: Brink’s this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 8.05%, and institutional views are bullishAbstract
The Brink’s Company will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 26, 2026, Post Market, with consensus anticipating revenue and EPS growth supported by steady core operations and expanding contributions from digital retail solutions and ATM managed services.Market Forecast
Consensus for The Brink’s Company’s current quarter points to revenue of $1.35 billion, an increase of 8.05% year over year, with EBIT estimated at $206.03 million (up 15.93% year over year) and adjusted EPS projected at $2.47 (up 31.10% year over year). Margin forecasts have not been specified; last quarter’s gross profit margin was 25.81% and net profit margin was 2.72%, which provide the baseline context for investors as they gauge the sustainability of recent earnings momentum. Brink’s main business remains anchored by cash and valuables management, supported by a broad, recurring service footprint and a mix shift that has favored higher-value offerings, underpinning EBIT and EPS outperformance in prior quarters. The most promising segment is digital retail solutions and ATM managed services, which generated $376.90 million last quarter, and is positioned to benefit from the expected 8.05% year-over-year increase in total revenue this quarter.Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, The Brink’s Company delivered revenue of $1.34 billion (up 6.04% year over year), a gross profit margin of 25.81%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $36.30 million, a net profit margin of 2.72%, and adjusted EPS of $2.08 (up 37.75% year over year). A key financial note was the quarter-on-quarter contraction in net profit, which fell 16.93%, highlighting sequential variability even as year-over-year earnings metrics expanded. Main business highlights included $958.10 million from cash and valuables management and $376.90 million from digital retail solutions and ATM managed services, with total company revenue up 6.04% year over year.Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business
The core cash and valuables management operation is set to anchor fourth-quarter performance, as indicated by last quarter’s $958.10 million revenue contribution and its 71.77% share of total sales. Sequentially, last quarter’s net profit declined by 16.93%, but the year-over-year EPS growth of 37.75% suggests that cost measures and mix improvements have been effective on a full-year basis. For the quarter ahead, the expected 8.05% year-over-year increase in total revenue, alongside projected EBIT of $206.03 million (up 15.93% year over year) and adjusted EPS of $2.47 (up 31.10% year over year), implies that the main business is anticipated to provide both scale and margin stability.Given the prior quarter’s 25.81% gross margin and 2.72% net margin, investors will watch whether Brink’s can preserve gross profitability while advancing EBIT growth. Volume execution and route efficiency are fundamental for maintaining the baseline margin profile that supported last quarter’s results, and the consensus outlook suggests continued leverage of these operational levers. While quarter-on-quarter net profit variability is evident, the broader trend in EPS and EBIT points to improved conversion of revenue into earnings, reflecting disciplined pricing and service mix that favors core offerings.
In practical terms, this quarter’s test for the main business will be whether EBIT growth outpaces revenue growth, reinforcing the read-through from adjusted EPS estimates. A positive spread between EBIT and revenue growth, if realized, would confirm that unit economics have strengthened relative to last year’s baseline. Conversely, if EBIT growth trails revenue growth, it would likely reflect transient cost or contractual timing issues; however, consensus projections imply that margin expansion remains plausible in the near term.
Most Promising Segment
Digital retail solutions and ATM managed services, which generated $376.90 million last quarter, continues to be the segment with the clearest pathway to incremental growth, both in revenue and in contribution to consolidated earnings. The segment’s footprint complements the larger cash and valuables management engine, and its embedded technology and service model support recurring revenues. In the context of the current quarter’s expected 8.05% year-over-year total revenue increase, this segment has the potential to capture a disproportionate share of incremental growth if operating execution sustains.The projected uplift in adjusted EPS to $2.47 (up 31.10% year over year) and the expected increase in EBIT to $206.03 million (up 15.93% year over year) indirectly highlight the segment’s strategic role: higher-value services within digital retail and ATM management can improve the overall revenue mix and support EBIT margin preservation. Given last quarter’s baseline margins, even small improvements in segment mix toward these services can have an amplified effect on consolidated profitability. Investors will look for confirmation that this segment’s revenue trajectory is aligned with the broader consensus trend and that it is functioning as a lever for margin stability.
From an execution standpoint, the segment’s ability to scale without diluting margins is crucial. The contribution of $376.90 million last quarter provides a stable base; the extent to which this segment can translate soft improvements in revenue into tangible EBIT gains will be central to how the market judges this quarter’s results. With total revenue expected to rise 8.05% year over year, a modest over-delivery from this segment relative to its historical share could be sufficient to validate the consensus EPS and EBIT projections.
Stock Price Drivers
Near-term stock performance will likely hinge on three measurable datapoints: revenue relative to the $1.35 billion consensus, EBIT relative to the $206.03 million estimate, and adjusted EPS relative to $2.47. If Brink’s meets or surpasses these thresholds, especially with EBIT growth of 15.93% year over year and EPS growth of 31.10% year over year, the market should read the print as supportive of the ongoing margin narrative. However, any material deviation from these metrics—particularly if EBIT underperforms revenue growth—could reintroduce questions about margin consistency, given last quarter’s sequential net profit decline of 16.93%.The interplay between gross margin and operating performance will be closely tracked, with last quarter’s 25.81% gross margin serving as a reference point. Investors do not have an explicit margin forecast for the current quarter, so the reported gross margin and the implied operating margin from EBIT will serve as direct validation of cost control and pricing discipline. EPS, being a composite measure of operating efficiency and capital structure, will also be scrutinized for alignment with the 31.10% year-over-year growth expectation; meeting or exceeding this mark would suggest that Brink’s has managed the cost base and mix effectively in the quarter.
A secondary, but meaningful, driver is capital deployment signaling. Brink’s kept its quarterly dividend at $0.255 per share in mid-January 2026, which typically reflects confidence in cash generation and earnings visibility; while not a primary mover of the stock on earnings day, dividend continuity underscores management’s view of balanced growth and shareholder returns. Separately, recent analyst actions—most notably the price target increase from a major institution in early February 2026—provide an external read that aligns with the consensus revenue, EBIT, and EPS trajectory, potentially reinforcing investor expectations into the print.
Analyst Opinions
Among the noted opinions collected since January 1, 2026, the ratio is 100% bullish versus 0% bearish, so the prevailing view is constructive. On February 10, 2026, Truist raised its price target on The Brink’s Company to $163 and maintained a Buy rating, a stance that coheres with the consensus growth profile for the quarter: revenue up 8.05% year over year to $1.35 billion, EBIT up 15.93% year over year to $206.03 million, and adjusted EPS up 31.10% year over year to $2.47. Truist’s action indicates confidence in Brink’s operational execution and earnings conversion, and that view appears consistent with last quarter’s strong year-over-year expansion in adjusted EPS (up 37.75%) and EBIT (up 24.01%), despite the sequential net profit decline.In assessing the bullish case, the institution’s target increase suggests that it expects Brink’s to sustain a favorable balance of growth and profitability in the current quarter. The implied thesis is that the company’s earnings drivers—scalable core operations in cash and valuables management and higher-value services in digital retail solutions and ATM managed services—will support the projected uplift in EPS and EBIT. The price target revision provides a tangible anchor for investor sentiment, effectively anticipating that Brink’s will validate consensus on revenue and exhibit disciplined cost control sufficient to meet or exceed EPS expectations.
What strengthens this stance is the internal consistency across the forecasts: revenue growth of 8.05% year over year is paired with a larger percentage increase in EBIT (15.93%) and an even higher projected growth in adjusted EPS (31.10%). This pattern implies leverage on operating efficiency and potential mix improvements. Given last quarter’s measured baseline—gross margin at 25.81% and net margin at 2.72%—the bullish view is predicated on Brink’s converting incremental sales into operating income at a rate that supports EPS expansion. If Brink’s prints within or above consensus, particularly on EBIT and EPS, the bullish case will gain further credibility.
A final element supporting the majority opinion is the company’s signaling on capital returns through a steady dividend. While this is not the centerpiece of earnings previews, it does help frame expectations for cash generation, complementing the narrative of improving EPS and resilient EBIT. Taken together, the prevailing analyst view points to a constructive setup into February 26, 2026, with the market prepared to reward Brink’s if it confirms the projected year-over-year improvements in the core financial metrics detailed above.