Abstract

Wal-Mart will post fourth-quarter results on February 19, 2026 Pre-Market, and expectations center on resilient top-line growth, steady margins, and a continued omnichannel flywheel to support earnings quality.

Market Forecast

Consensus aligned with the company’s latest projections points to fourth-quarter revenue around $190.24 billion, up 5.69% year over year, EBIT near $8.61 billion, up 10.46% year over year, and adjusted EPS around $0.73, up 12.64% year over year. Margin guidance is not explicitly provided in the collected forecasts, so the focus remains on revenue, earnings, and operating efficiency metrics.

The main business is set to benefit from stable traffic, disciplined price investments, and ongoing execution in digital ordering and store pickup, supporting a constructive outlook for comparable sales through seasonally strong periods. The most promising segment is Wal-Mart U.S., which generated $120.68 billion last quarter, and analysts expect at least 4% comparable sales growth year over year in the current quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Wal-Mart reported revenue of $179.50 billion, up 5.84% year over year, a gross profit margin of 24.95%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $6.14 billion, a net profit margin of 3.42%, and adjusted EPS of $0.62, up 6.90% year over year.

A key financial detail was EBIT of $7.26 billion, up 8.27% year over year, while GAAP net profit contracted 12.57% quarter over quarter, reflecting a quarter with conservative earnings cadence relative to the prior period. The main business mix remained broad-based: Wal-Mart U.S. contributed $120.68 billion, with companywide sales up 5.84% year over year and substantive contributions from International at $33.54 billion and Sam’s Club at $23.55 billion.

Current Quarter Outlook

Walmart U.S. Stores and Omnichannel Execution

The U.S. segment’s strength remains anchored in grocery and essentials, with consistent traffic and baskets supported by price investments and in-stock execution. Analysts expect at least 4% comparable sales growth year over year in the quarter, citing momentum built through the holiday period, with limited evidence of customer retrenchment. Operational discipline has been central, with inventory positioned to meet peak-season demand and promotional intensity calibrated to protect margins without undercutting traffic. The omnichannel experience continues to be integrated around store pickup, delivery, and digital engagement, reducing friction in ordering and fulfillment while sustaining share-of-wallet with higher-frequency shoppers. Management has emphasized the benefits of a unified app and loyalty ecosystem, which support repeat use and deeper engagement, and the cadence of store-to-online conversion appears healthy at a time when convenience is a primary customer decision driver. While precise margin guidance is not provided, the combination of positive comps, moderated shrink improvement initiatives, and alternative revenue growth should underpin earnings quality in the quarter.

Sam’s Club and Alternative Revenue Flywheel

Sam’s Club remains a strategically important contributor, delivering $23.55 billion last quarter, and membership and merchandising initiatives are positioned to support steady contributions in the current quarter. The larger flywheel spanning membership, media, data, and marketplace continues to develop, with advertising and third-party services becoming a more material offset to operating cost inflation over time. Walmart+ is increasingly integrated into the broader value proposition, offering delivery benefits, fuel discounts, and bundled digital features that enhance retention and order frequency. Several covering analysts emphasize that this flywheel helps Wal-Mart create more price flexibility while protecting gross margin through higher-margin alternative revenue streams. Marketplace assortment expansion and improved seller tools are expected to support conversion and average order values, while media monetization on owned properties enhances margins with limited capital intensity. The near-term trajectory, however, will be shaped primarily by the pace of comparable sales and the balance of promotional activity; membership engagement and service attach rates are pivotal metrics for sustaining the contribution from Sam’s Club and alternative revenue.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investors will be focused on whether adjusted EPS lands near the high end of the company’s implied range and how management frames fiscal-year 2026 targets relative to Street expectations. Analysts who lifted estimates for the fourth quarter point to stronger holiday execution, favorable weather in parts of the country, and continued momentum in Sam’s Club and International as supports; they also flagged that fiscal-year guidance could be aligned more closely with Wal-Mart’s long-term algorithm rather than the loftiest sell-side projections. Comparable sales in Wal-Mart U.S. will be the primary read-through for top-line strength, while any commentary on shrink improvement, wage initiatives, and pharmacy operations changes could be important for margin cadence in fiscal 2026. eCommerce profitability remains a central theme: improvements in last-mile efficiency, marketplace take rates, and media monetization may contribute more visibly to EBIT than headline sales suggest. Alternative revenue streams, including advertising and membership, are expected to deliver incremental margin support as long as traffic and engagement trends stay healthy, and any added disclosure on these streams would help refine models. Finally, international investments and optionality from holdings in technology platforms may factor into long-term value discussions, but the quarter’s immediate stock reaction will hinge on comps, EPS delivery, and whether fiscal-year guidance is framed as achievable and balanced.

Analyst Opinions

Across the collected institutional views within the January–February 2026 window, the opinions were overwhelmingly bullish, with a 100% bullish ratio and no identifiable bearish calls among recently published rating changes and previews. Oppenheimer raised its price target to $140 and lifted its fourth-quarter EPS estimate to $0.72, citing top-line momentum through the holiday period, possible weather benefits, and robust trends at Sam’s Club and International. Wells Fargo maintained an Overweight rating and increased its price target to $140, reflecting confidence in the near-term earnings cadence and the durability of Wal-Mart’s omnichannel execution. Gordon Haskett moved its target to $140 with a Buy rating, underscoring the company’s consistency in comps and operational control during seasonal peaks.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating with a $135 price target and emphasized the strengthening Walmart+ flywheel and eCommerce scale, while acknowledging limited near-term multiple upside against an already strong share-price performance. RBC Capital maintained a Buy rating with a $126 price target, highlighting stable comps and ongoing productivity improvements that support earnings quality. Goldman Sachs kept a Buy rating and a $121 price target, pointing to disciplined execution and continued progress in digital engagement and marketplace services. Bernstein reiterated its Buy rating and lifted its price target to $129, citing resilient traffic and broad-based initiatives that sustain revenue growth and improve margin mix. UBS maintained a Buy rating and increased its price target to $135, focusing on the alignment of operational strategy and visibility in the algorithm for medium-term sales and operating income. Barclays affirmed an Overweight rating with a price target of $125, and Piper Sandler raised its target to $130, both emphasizing the combination of physical scale and digital tools that keep customers in the ecosystem. Tigress reiterated a Buy rating with a $135 price target, pointing to momentum in media and membership contributions and potential value creation from technology-related holdings.

The dominant thread in these views is that Wal-Mart’s near-term results should be supported by solid comps, elevated eCommerce engagement, and alternative revenue development, with analysts preferring the company’s balance of scale advantages and operating discipline over narrower consumer discretionary plays. The majority anticipates a constructive fourth-quarter print, with EPS in line to slightly above consensus if comps track at least 4% in Wal-Mart U.S., and they expect management to calibrate fiscal-year guidance to longer-term growth parameters. Where there is caution, it tends to be about valuation and the potential for guidance to be framed conservatively rather than a fundamental concern; the prevailing stance is that the integrated flywheel and ongoing operational improvements can sustain a multi-year path of sales growth around mid-single digits and operating income growth within the algorithm framework. In effect, the market’s bullish tone is anchored in the belief that the company’s omnichannel platform, membership economics, and media monetization now play a central role in earnings quality, giving Wal-Mart multiple levers to navigate the current quarter while positioning for fiscal 2026 with measured visibility.