Special Topic: Positive market signals are gradually accumulating. Seize the window for long positions in the fourth quarter. Source: China Business Journal. Recently, gold prices have continued to fluctuate. Where will the market go next? Let's take a look together.

On October 9, international precious metals prices generally closed higher. Spot gold rose 1.46% to $4,194.15 per ounce; COMEX gold futures rose 1.52% to $4,220.30 per ounce. Spot silver rose 2.74% to $60.78 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 2.84% to $61.11 per ounce. Domestic gold jewelry prices rose collectively. On October 10, a comparison of domestic gold jewelry prices showed: Chow Tai Fook pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,265 yuan per gram, up 10 yuan from the previous day; Lao Feng Xiang pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,262 yuan per gram, up 12 yuan from the previous day; Chow Sang Sang pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,262 yuan per gram, up 8 yuan from the previous day. Lao Miao Gold pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,258 yuan per gram, up 9 yuan from the previous day.

Since early spring of this year, gold price movements have been difficult. Rising bond yields and persistently high inflation have pushed up market expectations for hawkish interest rates, making it hard for the precious metal to gain sustained upward momentum. Despite the challenges, long-term market sentiment remains bullish and has never wavered. This attitude was fully reflected at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) annual global precious metals conference held in Sorrento, Italy. Delegates and the broader investment community received a clear message: do not confuse short-term weakness with long-term weakness. Delegates expect that one year from now, the gold price will break through the "5,000-dollar mark," averaging $5,013.30 per ounce, representing roughly 20% upside from the current spot gold price. Central bank gold purchases were another core topic at this conference. Reserve managers around the world no longer treat gold merely as a single tool against inflation and a hedge against geopolitical risks. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said that gold now accounts for nearly one quarter of global central bank reserves. Although this increase mainly stems from higher gold prices rather than new buying, the overall trend is still worth watching. Central banks are not merely pursuing short-term returns, but are reassessing the role gold can play in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment. Official reserve asset data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that as of the end of September, China's gold reserves stood at 77.47 million ounces, an increase of 740,000 ounces from the end of August, marking the 23rd consecutive month of increases.

At the policy level, on October 7 local time, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed that most participants believed another rate hike before the end of the year could be appropriate, but subsequent decisions would depend on newly released information and its impact on the economic outlook and risk balance. Analysts believe that in the short term, gold prices still face dual pressure from interest rates and the dollar, and future movements will depend on further guidance from inflation data and Fed policy; in the medium to long term, central bank gold purchases and asset diversification needs will still provide support. UBS strategists said gold may test support near $4,000 per ounce again in the short term and then rebound. The bank believes that structural buying on dips is expected to build a price bottom at the $4,000 round-number level. Looking ahead, UBS forecasts gold prices will reach $4,600 in December this year, $5,000 from March to 2027, $5,200 in June, and $5,400 in September 2027. (Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice.)

Pre-market major events. From October 12 to 16, a total of 37 A-share stocks will have restricted shares unlocked, with a total of about 4.807 billion shares unlocked. Among them, Shaanxi Energy and Jinke Shares have the largest number of unlocked shares, accounting for more than 80% of the total unlocked shares. This week, the total market value of unlocked shares is about 41.462 billion yuan, with Shaanxi Energy the highest at more than 23 billion yuan. In addition, five stocks—Shouyao Holdings-U, Dapu Micro-UW, Jinke Shares, Jieli Technology, and Changjiang Energy Technology—have unlocked market values exceeding 1 billion yuan. Wind data show that one new stock will be issued this week. Wenfeng Optoelectronics has officially launched its public offering procedure on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with an issue price of 11.45 yuan per share and an online subscription date of October 12.

The State Council Information Office held a series of themed press conferences on October 10 titled "Starting Off and Setting Out for the 15th Five-Year Plan." A relevant official from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security introduced progress on promoting high-quality development of employment and social security. From January to September this year, 10.52 million new urban jobs were created, completing 87.7% of the annual target. The average surveyed urban unemployment rate in the first eight months was 5.2%, and the employment situation was generally stable. Next, China will also implement support plans for the employment of college graduates and other young people, plans to improve the employment quality of flexible workers and workers in new forms of employment, actions to promote employment adapted to artificial intelligence development, the "Skills Illuminate the Future" training action, actions to promote migrant worker employment, actions to supply high-quality public employment services, and actions for integrated development of "human resources services+." Implement the employment-first strategy and promote high-quality and full employment.

On October 10, Wu Qing, secretary of the Party Committee and chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, held a symposium in Beijing, engaging in in-depth exchanges with heads of some listed companies and experts from securities and fund institutions, and fully listening to opinions and suggestions on the current capital market and financial situation. At the symposium, everyone agreed that China's macroeconomy is stabilizing and improving, industrial structure transformation continues to deepen, the capital market is operating generally steadily, and the functions of the multi-tiered market are being effectively brought into play. Although there are some risks and challenges, the trend of high-quality development will not change, and there is full confidence in economic performance and the capital market.

On October 10, Zheng Shanjie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, presided over a symposium with private enterprises, focusing on accurately grasping the economic situation in the third quarter and actively responding to changes in international supply and demand, and held in-depth exchanges with heads of enterprises such as Shenghong Holding, Dongming Petrochemical, ENN Group, Jifeng Sannong, and XtalPi from fields including petrochemicals, natural gas supply, agricultural machinery, and artificial intelligence applications, listening to opinions and suggestions. Sina partners with major platforms for futures account opening, safe, fast, and guaranteed.