1. UK Business Survey Reveals Mixed Signals UK firms expect to raise prices by an average of 3.7% over the next year, a slight 0.1% increase from October. However, employment expectations weakened, with the three-month outlook dropping to -0.2% by November, signaling modest workforce reductions. Inflation expectations held steady at 3.4%, while wage growth projections edged up to 3.8%. The data comes ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' annual budget announcement.
2. Ofgem Approves £28B Energy Investment, Raising Consumer Bills The UK energy regulator greenlit a five-year £28B ($37.3B) grid upgrade plan on December 4, exceeding July's £24B draft proposal. Households will bear an average £108/year cost increase through network charges, which already account for a quarter of energy bills. National Grid and SSE welcomed the decision, though fuel poverty advocates warned against "blank checks" for utilities.
3. Historic Equity Fund Outflows Amid Tax Fear UK investors dumped £3B ($4B) of stock funds in November - the sixth straight month of net selling - over concerns about potential investment tax hikes in the budget, per Calastone data. Outflows abruptly reversed in late November after the budget avoided drastic tax changes. Money market funds saw record £1.3B inflows as investors sought safety.
4. UK Construction PMI Crashes to Pandemic Lows The UK construction PMI plummeted to 39.4 in November, its fastest contraction since May 2020. Residential and commercial activity hit multi-year lows, with firms citing weak confidence and pre-budget uncertainty. Employment fell at the sharpest pace since August 2020. The composite PMI (including services/manufacturing) slowed to 50.1, indicating fading economic momentum.
5. US Jobless Claims Hit 3-Year Low Despite Labor Market Strains Initial US jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 191,000 for the week ending November 29 - the lowest since September 2022. However, continuing claims remained elevated at 1.94M, reflecting a "no-hire, no-fire" labor market. The Fed faces growing dissent ahead of its December meeting, with 5 of 12 voting members opposing rate cuts.
6. US Layoffs Ease But Hiring Hits Decade Low US November layoffs fell 53% monthly to 71,321 but remained 24% higher annually, per Challenger data. Year-to-date job cuts surpassed 1.17M (+54% YoY), while planned hiring sank to a 2010-low of 497,151 (-35% YoY). AI-related layoffs totaled 6,280 in November, bringing 2025's tech-driven job losses to 54,694.
Market Watch GBPUSD rallied to 1.3380 - a five-week high - as upwardly revised UK PMI data (51.2 vs 50.5 prelim) eased recession fears. The dollar index extended its losing streak to 10 days, its worst run since 1971. Technicals suggest 1.3400 as critical resistance, with 1.3200 acting as support. Traders await US core PCE and consumer sentiment data due December 5.