Abstract

Hagerty will report fourth-quarter results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, and our preview compiles last quarter’s financials, the latest quarter’s forecasts, and recent developments to frame the setup for revenue, profitability, and EPS trajectory.

Market Forecast

The current quarter’s projections point to revenue of $324.94 million, implying 16.72% year-over-year growth, with EPS estimated at $0.04 and forecast to rise 422.64% year-over-year; EBIT is projected at $10.24 million, indicating 679.25% year-over-year growth. Margin forecasts were not disclosed in the dataset, so gross margin and net margin expectations for the quarter are not included.

The core revenue base remains anchored in insurance-related income, and the previous quarter’s composition suggests earned premiums and commissions/fees continue to set the cadence for topline quality and operating leverage. The most promising growth vector is the Membership, Marketplace and Other segment, which generated $55.85 million last quarter; year-over-year growth for this segment was not disclosed, though new channel distribution and engagement initiatives indicate an improving outlook for monetization.

Last Quarter Review

Hagerty delivered revenue of $379.99 million, up 17.51% year-over-year, with a gross profit margin of 61.38%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $20.85 million, a net profit margin of 5.49%, and adjusted EPS of $0.13, up 160.00% year-over-year.

A notable highlight was the broad-based beat versus internal projections: revenue of $379.99 million exceeded the modeled $354.75 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.13 outpaced the $0.08 per-share projection, underscoring both operating leverage and cost discipline. By business line, earned premiums contributed $187.04 million, commissions and fees contributed $137.10 million, and Membership, Marketplace and Other contributed $55.85 million, representing 49.22%, 36.08%, and 14.70% of revenue, respectively; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed in the dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core premium and fee income

The projected $324.94 million in revenue for the quarter implies a sequential step-down from $379.99 million, which is consistent with the intra-year seasonality embedded in premium earning patterns and fee recognition. Despite the quarter-on-quarter deceleration, the year-over-year signal remains constructive at 16.72%, pointing to ongoing policy growth and stable retention that continue to feed earned premiums and commission flows. On earnings power, the forecast for EBIT of $10.24 million and EPS of $0.04 implies solid operating leverage year-over-year from a relatively modest base, but the magnitude of modelled growth also means realized outcomes could be sensitive to loss trends, expense phasing, and the mix of acquisition costs.

Gross margin sustainability is a key angle after the prior quarter’s 61.38% result. While the forecast set we reviewed does not include a quarter-specific margin target, the implied operating profile suggests management’s cost controls and scale efficiencies are expected to hold through the quarter, provided loss ratios and non-catastrophe severity remain within modeled bands. The net profit margin of 5.49% last quarter demonstrates the profitability baseline; maintaining or expanding that margin will likely depend on the interplay between premium growth, net earned rate, and distribution/servicing expenses in the final month of the period.

Membership, Marketplace and media-driven monetization

The Membership, Marketplace and Other segment posted $55.85 million last quarter and is positioned to benefit from fresh distribution and engagement catalysts. On February 10, 2026, the company’s automotive enthusiast FAST channel went live on Prime Video, creating an additional distribution node that can support brand reach, advertising inventory, sponsorships, and funnel effects into auctions, marketplace transactions, and membership conversions. The incremental exposure from this channel can help diversify revenue drivers beyond insurance-linked income, while improving the monetization capacity of existing media and membership assets.

From a financial vantage point, the segment’s revenue base remains smaller than premiums and fees, but it appears to be the company’s most scalable growth option if engagement and watch-time metrics translate into advertising and sponsorship revenue upticks. Over time, a higher contribution from media and marketplace activity could reduce earnings volatility by distributing revenue sources across multiple demand cycles and user cohorts. In the near term, evidence of traction may first show up in user acquisition metrics, engagement depth, and the cross-sell rate into paid memberships and marketplace transactions; positive early signs would strengthen confidence in multi-year non-insurance revenue compounding.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

This quarter’s stock reaction will likely hinge on three tangible factors: delivery versus the $324.94 million revenue expectation, the EPS print relative to the $0.04 estimate, and management’s commentary on profitability cadence into the next fiscal period. With last quarter’s beat on both revenue and EPS, the market is attuned to whether the company can defend the year-over-year momentum while navigating sequential seasonality. If reported results align with the strong year-over-year EPS and EBIT deltas implied by the forecast baseline, sentiment could improve around the scalability of the model.

A second near-term consideration is capital markets signaling. Multiple Form 144 filings related to proposed sales of securities were listed around February 19, 2026, which can sometimes weigh on near-term trading as investors assess potential supply dynamics. The impact of such filings on price discovery tends to be driven by investor perceptions of insider timing rather than by operating fundamentals; clarity on the company’s medium-term profit algorithm and capital allocation can offset such episodic overhangs.

Finally, margin quality and loss-cost commentary are likely to feature in investor reactions. The prior quarter’s gross margin of 61.38% and net margin of 5.49% provided a supportive baseline, and the strong year-over-year forecast deltas for EBIT and EPS imply expectations for continued operating leverage. Investors will watch for signals on expense run-rate, acquisition cost efficiency, and any shifts in claims severity trends, as these can amplify or temper the conversion of revenue into earnings, particularly in seasonally lighter quarters.

Analyst Opinions

In the specified observation window from January 1, 2026 to February 19, 2026, we did not capture newly published sell-side rating changes or explicit street previews tied to the quarter. Within that context, the balance of published perspectives in our review that classify as clearly bullish or clearly bearish leans bullish relative to any identified bearish calls, as no outright bearish (Sell/Underperform) updates were observed in this period. Given this backdrop and the consensus-style forecasts indicating positive year-over-year revenue and EPS growth, the bullish framing centers on the potential for earnings leverage off a higher revenue base, with EBIT and EPS modeled to expand 679.25% and 422.64% year-over-year, respectively.

The pro-bull thesis in this setup emphasizes a few testable claims for the print and guide. First, the topline expectation of $324.94 million suggests the company is still compounding revenue at a healthy double-digit year-over-year rate even as sequential seasonality reduces quarter-on-quarter volume, which is a constructive signal on demand durability. Second, the company’s prior-quarter beat on both revenue and EPS builds credibility around execution, strengthening the argument that cost discipline and scale can continue to translate into operating leverage. Third, new distribution for the company’s fast-growing media franchise—now live on Prime Video—could progressively lift the revenue contribution from Membership, Marketplace and Other, broadening the earnings drivers beyond insurance-linked lines.

These views collectively imply that if management’s commentary validates stable loss trends, steady retention, and continued membership and marketplace expansion, the stock could attract incremental interest from investors focused on multi-segment monetization and profitability pathways. The absence of identifiable bearish calls in the monitored period does not remove risk; it simply frames the debate around the delivery of forecast growth versus the sensitivity of margins to operating variability. For this quarter, the bullish side will be looking for tangible confirmation of the revenue estimate, clean conversion to EPS near the $0.04 mark, and early signs that the media distribution step-up can improve the revenue trajectory in the non-insurance segment into the coming periods.