China's domestic surgical robot industry is at a critical turning point, transitioning from "proof of concept" to "scaled profitability."

On January 21, Zheshang Securities stated in its latest research report that with the implementation of the National Healthcare Security Administration's (NHSA) fee catalog policies and the accelerated expansion into overseas markets, the industry is expected to move from an early development phase into a period of rapid growth. If the past five years were about catching up technologically, the next five years will be about commercial realization.

Zheshang Securities reported that the market size for surgical robots in China in 2024 is approximately 7.2 billion Chinese Yuan. It is forecasted that by 2032, this figure will surge to 76.7 billion Yuan. This implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 34% over the next eight years, a rate of growth that is extremely rare in the current macroeconomic environment.

The report stated that on January 20, 2026, the NHSA issued the "Guidelines for Establishing Items for Surgical and Therapeutic Auxiliary Operations (Trial)", which clarifies the fee framework for surgical robots, significantly lowering the barrier for product adoption in hospitals. Simultaneously, leading companies are experiencing rapid growth in overseas orders; MicroPort Robot's global orders have exceeded 160 units, and Jingfeng Medical's overseas orders have reached 72 units, making international expansion a new growth engine.

Market Potential: Over 70 Billion Yuan Scale, 34% Annual Growth The report pointed out that according to Frost & Sullivan data, China's surgical robot market size is projected to grow from 7.2 billion Yuan in 2024 to 76.7 billion Yuan by 2032, with a CAGR of approximately 34%.

In contrast, the global market is expected to grow from $21.2 billion to $75 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of about 17%, indicating that China's market growth rate is significantly higher than the global average.

The report indicated that laparoscopic surgical robots hold the largest share, accounting for 58% of the total market size in 2024, making it the largest segment. The relaxation of configuration permits and the implementation of the fee catalog will be major driving forces. Zheshang Securities forecasts a CAGR of about 29% for the market size from 2024 to 2032, reaching 32.1 billion Yuan by 2032.

Furthermore, the orthopedic surgical robot market is second only to laparoscopic robots. According to statistics from Zhongcheng Data Technology for January-November 2025, orthopedic robots accounted for 26% of total installations and 22% of sales revenue. The report stated that with the improvement of domestic products and the implementation of the fee catalog, the market size from 2024 to 2032 is expected to achieve a CAGR of 41%, reaching 21.3 billion Yuan by 2032.

Key Catalyst in 2026: Fee Policy Solves Hospital Adoption Challenges The report stated that 2026 is a decisive moment for policy implementation, as the question of "who pays" is about to be systematically resolved. According to the report, the core challenge hindering the promotion of domestic robots in the past was that hospitals found it "economically unviable." Only by clarifying the fee catalog and medical insurance reimbursement rates can social benefits be translated into economic benefits for hospitals. The "Guidelines for Establishing Items for Surgical and Therapeutic Auxiliary Operations (Trial)" issued by the NHSA on January 20, 2026, is a key signal.

The development of domestic surgical robots can be divided into three stages:

Early Development Stage: Product capability was weak, market acceptance was low, clinical advantages were unclear, pricing and hospital adoption were difficult. Only leading hospitals made deployments, primarily yielding social benefits rather than economic ones. Rapid Development Stage (Entering in 2026): Two key prerequisites are now in place:

First, product capability has significantly improved, with some manufacturers offering well-graded product portfolios that have gained clinical recognition; Second, the fee catalog has been clarified. The fee guidelines issued by the NHSA on January 20, 2026, categorize surgical robots into four types: navigation, auxiliary execution, precision execution, and remote surgery, allowing for additional charges based on a coefficient of the primary surgery's price, which will significantly accelerate hospital adoption.

Comparison of Regional Fee Policies: Shanghai included four types of robotic procedures in medical insurance Class B in 2021, with patients co-paying 20%; Beijing included orthopedic robot surgeries in Class A for full reimbursement in 2021, with supporting consumables reimbursed at 70%; Hunan implemented additional charges ranging from 40% to 300% of the surgery price in 2022 but did not include them in medical insurance. The establishment of a national fee framework will provide guidance for local implementation.

Accelerated Overseas Expansion: New Growth Engine Activated According to the report, China's surgical robot market accounted for only about 5% of the global market in 2024, indicating vast potential overseas. Leading domestic companies are rapidly expanding into international markets:

MicroPort Robot: After its Toumai laparoscopic surgical robot received CE certification in May 2024, its global commercial orders exceeded 160 units by December 2025, covering over 40 countries. Its orthopedic robot, Honghu, has obtained certifications from China's NMPA, the US FDA, and the EU CE mark, with cumulative global orders surpassing 55 units in the first half of 2025. The proportion of overseas revenue has been steadily increasing from a relatively low base in 2022. Jingfeng Medical: Its laparoscopic surgical robot MP1000 received CE certification in March 2025, and the SP1000 received CE certification in October 2025. By the end of October 2025, the company had secured 72 overseas orders, accounting for 61% of its total global orders of 118 units. The share of overseas revenue is rising rapidly.

Zheshang Securities believes that domestic companies are leveraging product capability, cost-effectiveness, and unique innovations like 5G remote surgery to access overseas markets. Significant overseas growth is anticipated in 2026, potentially forming a sustained new source of growth.

Profit Model: Following Intuitive Surgical's Playbook, Earning from Consumables The report stated that the essence of the surgical robot business is the "razor and blades" model. Specifically: Benchmarking against Intuitive Surgical: This giant, with a market capitalization exceeding $187 billion, provides the standard answer. Selling the equipment (systems) is just the initial step; the real profit comes from the subsequent continuous stream of consumables and services. In 2024, consumables and service revenue accounted for 76% of Intuitive Surgical's total. Zheshang Securities argues that domestic companies must follow this logic—first deploy systems to establish a presence, then rely on consumables for profitability. At this stage, the installed base is the core leading indicator. Whoever gets their machines into the operating rooms first controls the cash flow valve for the next decade.

Simultaneously, the report pointed out that, referencing overseas giants like Stryker, the endgame for orthopedic robots is the synergy between "equipment and implants." The precise positioning capabilities of robots can drive sales of high-value orthopedic consumables, which will be key to profit recovery for domestic orthopedic leaders.