1. Fed Chair Selection and Trump’s Criticism: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the final shortlist of five candidates to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, with President Trump expected to decide by year-end. Trump reiterated his criticism of Powell, accusing him of delaying rate cuts and harming the economy. The Fed is widely anticipated to cut rates by 25 bps at its upcoming meeting, marking its second such move this year.
2. Barclays Highlights Fed Divisions: Barclays economists predict a 25 bps rate cut but note growing dissent within the FOMC. While some members advocate for more aggressive easing, others may oppose further cuts, reflecting deepening divisions over inflation, labor market resilience, and growth prospects.
3. U.S. Labor Market Shows Tentative Recovery: ADP reported a modest rebound in U.S. job growth, with weekly gains averaging 14,250 in early October. However, consumer confidence declined for the third straight month, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved slightly but remained negative.
4. RBNZ Governor’s Speech and NZ Economic Resilience: The RBNZ Governor is set to speak amid signs of stabilization in New Zealand’s labor market, with September employment rising 0.3% MoM. Household financial stress eased as mortgage rates fell 15.4%, though inflation pressures persist.
5. Political and Market Developments: New Zealand’s Labour Party unveiled economic policies, including a capital gains tax proposal, ahead of the 2026 elections. The NZX 50 rose 0.1%, led by financial stocks, while geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Gaza added to global uncertainty.
6. Technical Outlook for NZD/USD: NZD/USD traded cautiously near 0.5788 ahead of the Fed decision. Key resistance lies at 0.5835 (Bollinger upper band), while support holds at 0.5680. A break above 0.5840 could signal a bullish reversal, but failure to hold 0.5765 may trigger a retest of 0.5620.
Short-term trading range: 0.5800–0.5755. The Fed’s policy tone and RBNZ commentary will be pivotal for NZD direction.