随着重启霍尔木兹海峡的谈判似乎面临破裂，期货市场提高了对今年美国利率上升可能性的押注。据报道，德黑兰方面已因所谓的违反与美国停火协议的行为而中止了谈判。在CME FedWatch工具上，市场对美联储在12月前加息的概率预期已从上周五的36%升至43%，超过了维持利率不变的概率预期，后者则从55%降至39%。
受此消息影响，国债收益率和美元汇率双双走高，而原油期货也出现反弹。西德克萨斯中质原油价格上涨8%，华尔街日报美元指数上升0.3%。10年期美国国债收益率报4.512%，已回升至上周末的水平。
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