Goldman Sachs: Yen's Recent Surge Deemed Excessive and Rapid Amid BOJ Policy Risks

Deep News
9 hours ago

Goldman Sachs suggests that if the Bank of Japan utilizes the yen's recent strength to maintain a gradual interest rate hike trajectory, the currency's post-election rally could be at risk. Strategists led by Kamakshya Trivedi noted in a report that while the yen's upward momentum may persist in the coming weeks, they are inclined to view this surge as potentially too sharp and too fast. Should the BOJ leverage the yen's recent appreciation to adopt a more measured pace of tightening, the yen could revert to a depreciation trend, accompanied by potential volatility in the long-term government bond yield curve. "Simultaneously, we believe the likelihood of substantial capital repatriation to Japan in the near term remains low," as portfolio data indicate that narrower interest rate differentials or a steeper Japanese government bond yield curve would be necessary to trigger such flows. The U.S. dollar may continue to face pressure from multiple factors: uncertainty in U.S. policymaking, a sell-off in technology and software stocks that could weaken U.S. equities' relative performance, and regional dynamics in Asia, collectively driving dollar weakness. "This is particularly relevant for investors focused on dollar valuation and betting on its decline. The current overvaluation of the dollar is entirely attributable to its performance relative to Asian currencies."

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