Abstract

Avis Budget Group, Inc. will report fourth-quarter results on February 18, 2026, Post Market. The preview highlights consensus expectations for revenue and earnings, recent financing activity to support fleet operations, and how pricing and fleet costs may shape near-term performance.

Market Forecast

Consensus forecasts point to fourth-quarter revenue of $2.74 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of 0.98%. Adjusted EPS is estimated at -$0.42, implying year-over-year improvement of 36.90%, and EBIT is projected at $87.92 million, implying year-over-year growth of 239.64%. No formal company guidance was found for gross profit margin or net margin for the quarter; consensus does not provide margin targets.

Main business performance remains concentrated in the Avis and Budget brands. The Avis brand generated $2.00 billion last quarter, with Budget at $1.33 billion and Other at $0.19 million, underscoring the significance of brand-level pricing and fleet utilization in driving total results and the outlook for seasonal demand.

The most promising near-term contributor appears to be the International operations, supported by stronger revenue per day and lower fleet costs cited in the prior period’s commentary; adjusted EBITDA in International rose to $0.19 billion year over year during the last reported quarter, indicating notable operational momentum that could carry into the fourth quarter even as broader pricing dynamics remain mixed.

Last Quarter Review

Avis Budget’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of $3.52 billion, a gross profit margin of 35.55%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.36 billion, a net profit margin of 10.20%, and adjusted EPS of $10.11, with year-over-year growth of 1.12% for revenue and 52.03% for adjusted EPS. EBIT was $585.00 million, up 37.97% year over year, and performance exceeded earlier estimates on both revenue and EPS.

One highlight was the combination of lower fleet costs alongside a modest increase in rental days, which contributed to stronger profitability and exceeded prior market expectations for the period. Within the core brands, Avis contributed $2.00 billion in revenue and Budget contributed $1.33 billion, with Other at $0.19 billion; brand-level performance benefited from improved fleet efficiency and resilient demand patterns across major markets.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Rental Franchise (Avis and Budget)

The quarter’s performance will likely hinge on pricing discipline and fleet cost management across the two flagship brands. Consensus expects revenue to be $2.74 billion, implying only slight year-over-year growth of 0.98%, which suggests demand is steady but not robust. An estimated adjusted EPS of -$0.42, despite a projected EBIT of $87.92 million, reflects seasonal patterns typical for the fourth quarter and potential pressure from pricing and recall-related fleet availability, which can elevate non-operating costs or distort per-vehicle utilization. The prior period’s report highlighted lower fleet costs as a key tailwind; if this trend persists, it can partially offset softness in revenue per day. However, any sustained decline in pricing or an unfavorable mix between leisure and corporate rentals may compress margins, especially without significant volume acceleration. The balance between rental days and revenue per day will be central: a modest increase in rental days can support utilization, yet if pricing remains down even slightly, the quarter’s profitability may rely more on cost controls than on top-line expansion.

International Operations

International activity stands out as a relative strength, with last quarter’s adjusted EBITDA rising to $0.19 billion year over year on stronger revenue per day and lower fleet costs. That combination indicates effective pricing and cost execution in the region, positioning International for more resilient margin dynamics than North America when pricing becomes more competitive. In the fourth quarter, seasonal demand in international markets combined with favorable currency or destination mix can help stabilize results, even if global leisure travel normalizes from prior peaks. The risk is that rental days may not keep pace with pricing gains, limiting total revenue expansion, but operational leverage from lower fleet costs can still drive a disproportionate contribution to EBIT. If the brand mix in International skews toward higher-value rentals and continued efficiency in fleet rotation, this segment could provide an offset to softer revenue per day in the Americas and help cushion overall margin outcomes for the quarter.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The first critical factor is fleet cost trajectory and recall timing. The prior commentary around recall timing shifting into the fourth quarter presents a tangible headwind: higher downtime or elevated maintenance cycles can suppress utilization and push expenses up, even if overall demand is stable. Investors will focus on the extent to which recall-related headwinds were realized and whether they subside heading into 2026. The second driver is pricing and revenue per day. The last report noted slight pressure in the Americas on revenue per day, down around 1%, while International achieved stronger levels. Any indication that pricing pressure intensified in the quarter could weigh on margins and outlook, whereas stable or improved pricing—especially in higher-demand urban and airport locations—would be viewed favorably. The third driver is financing and liquidity access. On January 6, 2026, the company’s subsidiary issued $0.97 billion in asset-backed securities supported by fleet assets, and concurrently repaid $0.97 billion of other notes at year-end 2025. This financing activity supports fleet investments and rotation heading into 2026, and, by diversifying funding sources, can mitigate interest expense volatility. Investors will parse the earnings call for updates on funding costs, securitization appetite, and how these capital moves translate to fleet age, residual management, and vehicle mix in the coming quarters. Together, these elements will shape sentiment on whether modest revenue growth can be leveraged into improved profitability through cost discipline and financing optimization.

Analyst Opinions

Across the available views within the current period, public analyst previews appear limited, and the opinions lean neutral to cautious, forming the majority stance. The prevailing expectation is for muted top-line growth and margin compression risks tied to pricing and recall timing, rather than a strong revenue or EPS beat. In this lens, the consensus forecast of $2.74 billion in revenue with a modest year-over-year increase of 0.98% and an estimated adjusted EPS of -$0.42 underscores a balanced approach: analysts anticipate that fleet cost management and International strength can stabilize results while pointing to risks around pricing in the Americas and the recall-related utilization impact. The recent $0.97 billion asset-backed securities issuance by a company subsidiary and concurrent note repayment at year-end 2025 is commonly interpreted as a prudent move to support fleet financing and provide liquidity flexibility; analysts who follow securitized fleet finance generally view such actions as supportive of operational resilience, though they remain cautious about what higher funding costs could mean for net margins. The dominant takeaway is that expectations are anchored to slight revenue growth and a seasonal EPS loss, with valuation sensitivity likely tied to commentary on pricing trends, fleet costs, and recall impacts rather than outsized surprises in headline revenue or EBIT.