Market Analysis The release of the draft proposal for China's 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, held in Beijing from October 20 to 23, outlined key economic and social development goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030). The communiqué emphasized significant progress in high-quality development, technological self-reliance, deeper reforms, improved social civilization, enhanced living standards, and major advancements in building a "Beautiful China." By 2035, China aims to achieve substantial growth in economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries. Analysts estimate average GDP growth of around 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, bolstering market confidence.
On October 28, the full proposal was released, outlining unconventional measures to advance breakthroughs in core technologies, implement an "AI+" initiative, and stimulate consumption. The PBOC, in a report to the State Council on October 26, pledged to refine market stabilization mechanisms and maintain accommodative monetary policy. At the 2025 Financial Street Forum (October 27–30), the central bank announced plans to resume open-market treasury bond trading, while the CSRC emphasized deepening ChiNext reforms and leveraging long-term capital as a market stabilizer.
Meanwhile, the Fed cut rates by 25bps as expected and will end balance sheet reduction from December 1. Chair Powell noted that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, citing divisions among officials and caution due to a potential government shutdown. Fed funds futures price in a 67.8% chance of another 25bps cut in December. The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 28th day, remains unresolved, delaying key economic data releases. Treasury Secretary Bassett revealed the Fed chair shortlist has narrowed to five candidates, with a decision expected by year-end.
Commodities & Equities Commodities: Neutral stance advised amid elevated volatility. Base metals and energy may see breakthroughs in the latter inflation phase. Copper rose nearly 1% on October 29 due to supply risks, while OPEC+ plans to increase output by 137k bpd in November. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4 million barrels last week. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations, while precious metals may consolidate after recent swings.
Equities: China's A-shares rallied, with the Shanghai Composite reclaiming 4,000 points, the ChiNext up nearly 3%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index surging over 8%. Solar and energy storage sectors led gains.
Risks Geopolitical tensions (upside for energy); global economic slowdown (downside for risk assets); Fed overtightening; overseas liquidity shocks.