Analysis of Gold Price Movement: On April 20, gold showed a rebound trend early in the week, followed by a pattern of high-level fluctuations later. Persistent uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran situation led to erratic and repetitive price swings. Although gold remained at elevated levels overall, the actual trading range was notably narrow. Over the weekend, the lack of substantive progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, combined with the impending expiration of the temporary ceasefire agreement on the 22nd of this month, significantly heightened market concerns about a resurgence of conflict in the Middle East. Consequently, the U.S. dollar index opened higher today, while gold opened lower. However, after the lower opening, the price did not continue to weaken; instead, it experienced a degree of rebound and recovery.

From a daily chart perspective, last week's surge following a lower opening was entirely driven by external news factors and did not align with the technical pattern's inherent logic. Throughout the week, the price consistently moved along the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, yet short-term upward momentum remained weak. This indicates that bullish confidence in the market is still insufficient, and the price continues to passively follow the inverse movement of the U.S. dollar index, lacking an independent upward rationale. Today's rebound after the lower opening tested the resistance of the 5-day moving average but failed to break through effectively. Therefore, the battle between bulls and bears around the 5-day moving average near 4810 will be a key focus this week. Even if the price stabilizes above this level, its significance for the technical trend is relatively limited, but it would noticeably impact short-term market sentiment. A sustained hold above this level would likely signal increased market expectations for a U.S.-Iran agreement.

From a fundamental standpoint, the likelihood of renewed escalation in the U.S.-Iran situation after the temporary ceasefire expires on the 22nd remains high. A resurgence of conflict would probably drive the U.S. dollar index higher, directly pressuring gold prices downward. If gold enters a corrective decline, key support below can be observed around the 20-day moving average near 4660. Overall, this week, gold is expected to continue moving inversely to the U.S. dollar index's rhythm, likely oscillating within the range of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the short term. Technically, there are no conditions supporting a sustained bullish outlook, and fundamental expectations also lean bearish for gold. Thus, the subjective trend expectation for the week remains biased toward corrective declines, though actual price action will require close monitoring of developments in the U.S.-Iran situation for timely adjustments.

On the hourly chart, the primary focus early in the week will be on whether the price can close the gap between 4800 and 4830. If gold fails to stabilize above this range, the market will likely gradually shift toward weaker fluctuations. Initial support below is around 4770-4780, with the core support on the hourly chart still at the trendline near 4730. In the latter part of the week, the market may make a clear directional move based on the final outcome of the U.S.-Iran conflict.

In terms of trading strategy, the approach early in the week can continue to favor corrective declines, with a focus on short-term bearish positions. Consider分批布局空单 (placing short orders in batches) when gold rebounds to the 4800-4810 and 4820-4830 intervals, with a unified stop-loss set above 4840. The initial target is around 4770-4780, after which stop-loss can be adjusted to break-even. Key support below is the 4730-4740 range for partial position closing. The remaining positions can be held or exited based on subsequent actual developments in the U.S.-Iran situation.