Abstract

Diebold Nixdorf will report quarterly results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations, the company’s guidance posture, recent operating trends from the last quarter, and the likely drivers for revenue, margin, and EPS into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Diebold Nixdorf this quarter points to revenue of 1.11 billion USD, up 12.75 percent year over year, with EPS estimated at 1.62 and EBIT at 126.75 million USD; year-over-year growth is forecast at 53.63 percent for EPS and 33.49 percent for EBIT. The company’s last report implies continued mix benefits and operating leverage, though explicit gross margin and net margin forecasts are not provided by the market; YoY framing is constructive for both revenue and earnings. The core business is expected to be supported by bank technology upgrades and steady execution in retail solutions, with a focus on disciplined pricing and cost control. The most promising segment remains Banking, which generated 0.69 billion USD last quarter; although YoY data is not separately disclosed here, it remains the revenue anchor and lever for scale efficiency.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Diebold Nixdorf delivered revenue of 0.95 billion USD, a gross profit margin of 26.23 percent, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.10 million USD, a net profit margin of 4.35 percent, and adjusted EPS of 1.38, with adjusted EPS rising 150.91 percent year over year. Quarter-on-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders grew 236.89 percent, reflecting improved mix and cost discipline. Main business performance was led by Banking at 0.69 billion USD and Retail at 0.26 billion USD, underscoring the company’s balanced exposure to ATM modernization, services, and point-of-sale rollouts.

Current Quarter Outlook

Banking Solutions and Services

Banking is the primary revenue engine and the largest earnings lever, supported by continued refresh cycles in self-service banking technology, managed services, and software. The last quarter’s revenue base of 0.69 billion USD positions the segment to benefit from project deliveries and services renewal momentum. Into the current quarter, revenue growth expectations overall at 12.75 percent YoY suggest stable demand for new ATMs, upgrades, and software-driven features that improve cash cycle efficiency for banks, while services contracts support recurring revenue visibility. Margin dynamics in Banking should continue to improve with mix shift toward software and services, combined with procurement and operational efficiencies that underpinned the prior quarter’s 26.23 percent gross margin. The net profit margin of 4.35 percent last quarter indicates room for further operating leverage as revenue scales. Execution risk remains tied to delivery timing and large project milestones; however, the EBIT estimate of 126.75 million USD implies adequate absorption and pricing support even if some hardware volumes phase between months. The quarter’s KPI watch will include software attach rates, service backlog conversion, and replacement cycles in key geographies. A stronger sequential contribution from services can stabilize margins even if some hardware orders slip, while continued focus on cost structure supports the EPS estimate of 1.62.

Retail Commerce Platforms

Retail, at 0.26 billion USD last quarter, is the second pillar, anchored by checkout and self-checkout solutions, POS software, and lifecycle services. The segment’s near-term set-up benefits from multi-country deployments and retailer investments in throughput, shrink reduction, and omnichannel integration. With overall company revenue guided by consensus to grow 12.75 percent YoY, Retail’s growth path appears supported by backlog conversion and seasonal installations typical for large retail programs. Gross margin stability relies on product mix, with higher-margin software and services offsetting the hardware component. The prior quarter’s company-level gross margin of 26.23 percent provides a reference point; consistent field execution and pricing discipline can keep margins resilient despite currency and component variability. The key sensitivity is project phasing and acceptance testing timing; however, an improving supply chain and standardization of platforms should keep implementation costs in check and support EBIT flow-through this quarter. Investors should monitor new wins and expansions with large retailers, the pace of self-checkout adoption, and maintenance renewal rates. A steadier cadence of software releases and managed services can dampen volatility and contribute to the earnings cadence implied by the 33.49 percent YoY EBIT growth estimate.

Stock Price Drivers and Sentiment Factors

Three dynamics are likely to influence the stock reaction this quarter: delivery timing versus consensus, margin quality, and the EPS print relative to the 1.62 estimate. If revenue lands near 1.11 billion USD but mix tilts toward services and software, gross margins could hold above the previous 26.23 percent watermark and help EBIT approach the 126.75 million USD estimate. Conversely, a heavier hardware mix could compress margins but might be offset by operating cost controls, sustaining net margin near recent levels. The breadth of Banking demand across regions and customer tiers will matter for visibility into the next quarter, as will renewal activity for managed services. Retail project momentum is a secondary driver; a healthy backlog conversion could mitigate any hardware lumpiness in Banking. Also relevant will be commentary on cost structure, working capital discipline, and cash generation, which help contextualize EPS durability into the upcoming quarters. Finally, the quarter’s narrative strength will hinge on whether management underscores sustainable pricing and backlog execution that reinforce the double-digit revenue growth profile. Given last quarter’s 236.89 percent quarter-on-quarter net profit expansion and the large year-over-year EPS increase, the market is primed to validate whether these improvements reflect structural gains rather than one-off factors.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the majority view skews positive, emphasizing improving execution, backlog conversion, and a healthier balance between hardware and service/software revenue. Analysts highlighting double-digit revenue growth potential and meaningful EBIT expansion into this quarter align with the consensus revenue estimate of 1.11 billion USD and EBIT estimate of 126.75 million USD. Well-followed equity research voices point to continued cost discipline and operating leverage underpinning the 53.63 percent YoY EPS growth estimate to 1.62. The constructive stance reflects expectations that Banking will remain resilient amid ATM fleet modernization and that Retail deployments will provide incremental tailwinds. On balance, the bullish camp expects the company to meet or slightly exceed revenue and EPS estimates if execution on project timing remains intact, with particular attention to margin mix and service renewal rates.