The cryptocurrency market faced significant selling pressure during Friday's Asian trading session. This followed a warning from Standard Chartered, often referred to as a "bitcoin bull market champion," about further potential weakness for Bitcoin and a substantial reduction in its year-end 2026 price target. Additional pressure came from Coinbase Global Inc. reporting an unexpected loss for the fourth quarter.
Standard Chartered cautioned that Bitcoin could weaken further, exacerbating already subdued market sentiment. The bank significantly lowered its Bitcoin price forecast for the end of 2026 to $100,000, down from a previous projection of $150,000. It also warned that the cryptocurrency might decline to around $50,000 before stabilizing. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading slightly above $66,000 during Asian hours, after falling as much as 4% to $65,079 in New York trading, its lowest level for the week. Ethereum was trading near $1,940, also close to its weekly low.
Selling intensified earlier in the week when Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, recording its worst single-day drop since November 2022. This large-scale sell-off indicated tightening liquidity and a crisis of confidence for Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin saw a strong rebound last Friday, its price has since fluctuated between $65,000 and $70,000.
An analyst from Compass Point suggested that after a recent round of irrational panic selling, the largest cryptocurrency might be nearing a bottom. Recent data shows that Bitcoin attracted new buying interest from some of its largest holders. However, the narrow nature of this demand raises questions about whether it signals a broader recovery in risk appetite or is merely a damage control measure by major holders. So-called "Bitcoin whale" wallets accumulated approximately 53,000 Bitcoin over the past week, the largest weekly purchase since November, following several weeks of heavy selling. This buying helped stabilize prices after a significant pullback, even as most institutional investors remained on the sidelines. Data from research firm Glassnode indicated that wallets holding over 1,000 Bitcoin added over $4 billion worth of the cryptocurrency during this period, interrupting a months-long trend of reduction that had seen Bitcoin fall about 40% from its October peak.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated in a research report, "We expect to see further price capitulation in the coming months." He specifically pointed to continued net outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a weakening US macroeconomic background alongside declining market risk appetite. Standard Chartered, known for its early and long-standing bullish stance on Bitcoin, has now adopted a more cautious investment outlook. The bank's report also noted that its $100,000 target for late 2026 is a significant reduction from a projection of $300,000 made just a few months ago.
Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 last week and is now down more than 45% from its historical peak of slightly over $126,000 in October. Its repeated failure to sustain rebounds suggests speculative demand is thinning. During the same period, the broader cryptocurrency market lost nearly $2 trillion in value.
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia, commented in a report, "From a technical perspective, as long as Bitcoin holds the $58,000 level near its 200-week moving average—from which it rebounded last Friday—there is still room for an upward correction towards the $73,000–$75,000 resistance zone. However, a sustained break below the key $60,000/$58,000 range would likely open the door for a deeper retracement towards the next key support level in the low $40,000s."
Damien Loh, Chief Investment Officer at Ericsenz Capital, noted that market sentiment is being affected by concerns over risk assets, suggesting that large-scale sell-offs in other asset classes, such as software stocks, "could open up more downside for cryptocurrencies."
Simultaneously, Coinbase Global Inc. reported a fourth-quarter loss of $667 million, with total revenue falling sharply to $1.8 billion, which was over 20% below market expectations. This highlights the impact of falling cryptocurrency prices on trading activity. This was just one of several challenges for the exchange on Thursday. Prior to the earnings release, customers reported issues with buying, selling, and transfer operations on the company's website, prompting Coinbase to post on social media platform X to assure users that "your funds are safe" before later announcing the issue was resolved.
Additionally, Wall Street research firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. downgraded Coinbase's stock rating to "Sell," stating that the assumption of a steady market recovery is both "foolish" and "facile," given that cryptocurrency bear markets typically last for extended periods. Driven by these negative factors, Coinbase's stock fell for three consecutive days, declining approximately 8% to $141. The stock has fallen 37% year-to-date.