Western Securities has released a research report stating that the long-term industry competitive landscape is stable, and CIRRUS (02507) holds significant advantages in brand and manufacturing, with its market share expected to be sustained. The firm is optimistic about CIRRUS's long-term steady growth potential. Concurrently, the company is progressively advancing capacity expansion and service network development. With anticipated improvements in delivery capabilities and product portfolio richness, performance is expected to accelerate. Net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $160 million, $190 million, and $240 million, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.4x, 15.3x, and 12.4x. The report expresses confidence in continued valuation recovery and maintains a "Buy" rating. Key points from Western Securities are as follows:
The company launched the new VisionJet G3 model, implementing another price increase alongside upgrades in intelligence and comfort. On the evening of February 3rd, after a five-year interval, the CIRRUS VisionJet series received a significant upgrade: 1) Enhanced consumer orientation: Comprehensive avionics upgrade, equipped with a CPDLC system enabling electronic handling of flight communications, eliminating manual data entry or repeated radio calls with the tower; supports touchscreen route planning during takeoff and landing; flight database supports automatic updates. 2) More spacious rear cabin area and improved interior quality. 3) Performance: Slight increases in maximum flight speed, payload capacity, and flight ceiling; engine improvements enhance crosswind capability.
These developments are favorable for continued order acquisition, with delivery structure improving alongside capacity expansion. CIRRUS's target demographic is high-net-worth individuals rather than professional pilots. The focus on intelligent/safety performance upgrades and resolving minor inconveniences during flight is crucial for customer acquisition and market penetration. 1) From an order perspective, the delivery cycle for the VisionJet was previously long; with recent capacity expansion and the new model finalized, delivery volumes are expected to increase significantly. 2) The price point for the new aircraft is also expected to be higher compared to older products. 3) Financially, as structurally superior products like the VisionJet G3 and SR G7+ gradually secure new orders and are delivered, the overall product mix is expected to improve year-on-year. Furthermore, higher-end products will be matched with more premium services, driving profitability upwards.
Risk warnings include a potential US economic recession, risks related to shareholder减持 (share reduction), and service growth falling short of expectations.