Abstract

Viper Energy Partners LP will release its quarterly results on February 23, 2026 Post Market, with current projections indicating revenue of $429.11 million and adjusted EPS of $0.30, and market attention centered on volume trends, realized pricing, margin sustainability, and cash distributions.

Market Forecast

Consensus projections for Viper Energy Partners LP’s current quarter point to revenue of $429.11 million, EBIT of $180.41 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.30; the corresponding year-over-year growth rates are 92.68% for revenue, 28.34% for EBIT, and -32.18% for adjusted EPS. While gross margin and net margin forecasts are not disclosed, the revenue trajectory implies robust top-line expansion, offset by EPS compression due to below-the-line items and capital structure effects.

Royalty interests remain the operational highlight and the revenue anchor, having delivered $393.00 million last quarter; the near-term outlook is tied to operator activity cadence and integration benefits following announced portfolio actions. The most promising segment is royalty interests, which posted $393.00 million in the previous quarter; with total revenue forecast to rise 92.68% year-over-year, royalty receipts should account for the bulk of the incremental gains in the current period.

Last Quarter Review

Viper Energy Partners LP reported revenue of $418.00 million last quarter, with a gross profit margin of 96.24%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -$77.00 million, a net profit margin of -19.30%, and adjusted EPS of $0.40; the year-over-year growth rates were 99.44% for revenue and -18.37% for adjusted EPS.

A key highlight was the swing in EBIT to -$176.00 million year-over-year (-229.96%), indicating that items below gross profit compressed profitability despite high revenue and elevated gross margins, with net profit declining 308.11% quarter-on-quarter. Main business contributions were concentrated in royalty interests at $393.00 million (94.02% of revenue), supplemented by $17.00 million in related-party lease dividends and $8.00 million in other lease dividends.

Current Quarter Outlook

Royalty Interests (Main Business)

Royalty interests are the core revenue driver for Viper Energy Partners LP, and last quarter’s $393.00 million underscores the segment’s scale and consistency. The forecasted revenue expansion of 92.68% year-over-year this quarter suggests continued strength in volumes and realized pricing, with royalty receipts expected to be the primary contributor to top-line gains. Given the 96.24% gross margin recorded last quarter, the royalty model’s low direct operating costs should continue to support high gross profitability, though net results will remain sensitive to items below gross profit, including depreciation, non-cash mark-to-market effects, and financing expenses. Management’s operating cadence—visible via recent production updates and portfolio streamlining—implies a constructive setup for royalty cash flows to track operator completion schedules and development intensity. The EBIT forecast of $180.41 million (+28.34% year-over-year) points to improved operating profitability, yet the forecasted EPS decline (-32.18% year-over-year to $0.30) highlights the importance of capital structure and non-operating line items in translating operating gains to per-unit earnings. Investors will closely watch whether realized pricing and the timing of receipt recognition align with the quarter’s completion pace, as even modest shifts can move reported EPS and cash distributions.

Related-Party Lease Dividends (Most Promising Business)

Related-party lease dividends generated $17.00 million last quarter and offer potential for near-term improvement when aligned with the operator’s development schedule and the cadence of associated midstream and infrastructure agreements. This category’s performance can benefit from coordinated activity across operated properties, with receipt timing contingent on production flows and contractual terms, which often produce lumpy quarter-to-quarter patterns despite supportive throughput. The announced divestiture of non-core assets and continued emphasis on core properties is supportive of operational focus, which can reduce volatility and sharpen capital allocation, indirectly aiding dividend receipts tied to core areas. While specific year-over-year growth for this segment has not been disclosed, the overall revenue forecast implying a 92.68% year-over-year increase suggests that non-royalty receipts may also benefit from the broader uplift in activity and production. The key watchpoints for this quarter include continuity and predictability of related-party agreements, the pace at which volumes translate into cash receipts, and the degree to which operational efficiencies mitigate timing mismatches in accrual versus cash recognition. If these factors align, related-party lease dividends can provide a secondary source of consistent cash inflow that complements the royalty base and supports per-unit cash generation.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

This quarter’s stock action will be most sensitive to the interaction between high-level operating metrics and per-unit financials—specifically, whether the forecasted revenue and EBIT growth translate into stable net margins and sufficient adjusted EPS to meet distribution expectations. With last quarter’s net margin at -19.30% despite a 96.24% gross margin, investors will focus on the drivers below gross profit that determine EPS trajectory, such as interest expense, non-cash valuation marks, and timing differences between accrual and cash receipts. The company’s recent guidance cadence—highlighting volume uplift and portfolio streamlining—sets expectations that operational throughput is supportive of current-quarter receipts; the question is whether EPS and cash distributions reflect that throughput in a manner consistent with consensus. Equity market reaction will also hinge on the clarity of commentary in the earnings release about production cadence, price realizations, and capital returns policy, all of which frame near-term visibility for unit holders. A further driver is any update on asset mix following non-core divestitures, as tightening the portfolio around core properties tends to reduce noise in reported metrics and can strengthen the link between operator activity and royalty/lease cash flows. If management reiterates a disciplined capital returns posture while evidencing the forecasted top-line expansion, the probability of the market emphasizing cash generation over reported EPS variability increases, which can stabilize the unit price around distribution expectations.

Analyst Opinions

The ratio of bullish to bearish opinions among recent institutional notes is 6:0, reflecting a predominance of Buy ratings over neutral or negative views; the majority side is bullish. Analysts at Morgan Stanley (Buy, $45.00 target) remain constructive, citing supportive operating momentum and the cash-generation profile consistent with a focused royalty platform. Piper Sandler (Buy, $64.00 target) emphasizes the attractive alignment between operator activity and royalty receipts, expecting current-quarter throughput to underpin strong reported revenue. Bank of America Securities (Buy, $45.00 target) reiterates a positive stance, highlighting potential stability in distributions and the benefits of portfolio simplification. KeyBanc (Buy, $54.00 target) and Barclays (Buy, $57.00 target) each focus on the capacity for sustained cash returns, noting that the concentration in core properties should improve visibility into quarterly cash flows and mitigate non-core volatility. Roth MKM (Buy, $49.00 target) underscores leverage to operator development schedules and sees room for operating profitability to move higher in line with the forecasted EBIT growth.

Across the bullish camp, the common threads are the expectation that top-line momentum remains intact, the view that operating profitability stabilizes relative to last quarter’s negative EBIT swing, and confidence that distribution capacity aligns with long-term cash generation. The majority also acknowledges that adjusted EPS may lag the revenue trajectory due to capital structure and non-operating factors; however, they focus on cash returns and underlying throughput as the primary long-run valuation anchors. In synthesizing these views, the central case is that Viper Energy Partners LP’s current-quarter revenue outlook of $429.11 million and EBIT growth of 28.34% year-over-year set a constructive foundation, while disciplined portfolio actions and core property focus should help narrow the gap between operating performance and per-unit earnings. Should the release on February 23, 2026 confirm the revenue and EBIT trajectory and provide clarity on distribution policy, the bullish perspective anticipates a favorable reassessment of near-term unit performance, with attention directed toward the sustainability of high gross margins and the alignment of receipt timing with production cadence.