Global gold mining stocks have plunged as surging oil prices during the Iran conflict led traders to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing their year-to-date performance into negative territory. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index fell 6.6% on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since December of last year. This index, which includes companies from the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia, has now declined approximately 1.9% for the year 2026. This contrasts sharply with its peak on March 2, the first trading day after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliation, when the index had surged as much as 35%.
The sector's weakness intensified on Thursday as escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf drove crude oil prices higher and contributed to gold's seventh consecutive day of decline, marking the metal's longest losing streak since October 2023. By Friday, gold was trading near $4,640 per ounce, down nearly 8% for the week, its largest weekly drop since March 2020. Since the outbreak of war, gold has fallen approximately 12%, as more expensive energy raises inflation risks, making it harder for central banks to reduce borrowing costs. This poses a risk to gold, which yields no income and typically performs better when interest rates are low. Traders have now largely abandoned expectations for Federal Reserve easing this year, with some even hedging against potential rate hikes.
Christopher LaFemina, an analyst at Jefferies, stated, "Investor focus is currently on margins and the potential double whammy of falling gold prices coupled with rising energy/input costs. In a prolonged conflict scenario, rising rate expectations and a stronger US dollar could exert further pressure on gold." Robert Gottlieb, a former JPMorgan precious metals trader now working as an independent market commentator, advised, "Don't buy the dip—the volatility is too high. Until volatility subsides and prices begin to consolidate, we could see more selling."
Another factor working against gold recently is the US dollar's role as a key safe-haven asset during the conflict. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1.5% in March. Since gold is priced in dollars, this makes the precious metal more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
The war has effectively ended the record-breaking rally in gold mining stocks. These stocks saw significant inflows in 2025, a period during which the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell about 8%. Gold prices rose 65% last year, achieving a series of all-time highs. Companies like Newmont Corporation (NEM.US), Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., and Barrick Gold (GOLD.US) all surged over 115% in 2025—gains more typical of speculative assets than a metal considered a safe haven. Now, as the conflict persists, some investors are rapidly offloading these shares.
Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, explained, "When volatility hits, the market sells anything that's liquid, and mining stocks are very liquid. Combine that with the fear of persistently higher oil prices, and you get a fast, brutal sell-off—even companies that are still generating cash aren't spared." According to analyst estimates, Barrick Gold's annual profit for this year is projected to grow by 55%, while Agnico Eagle Mines' profit is expected to increase 72% year-over-year. Both companies are headquartered in Toronto.
Analysts note that while falling gold prices would impact revenue, major miners might be cushioned by the substantial rise in gold prices in recent years. Since the end of 2023, gold has skyrocketed over 120%, providing a significant boost to the gold miners index, which has climbed more than 170% over the same period. Tuttle added that if oil prices stabilize and pressure from interest rates and the dollar eases, mining companies with net cash, low costs, and high-quality assets—such as Newmont and Agnico Eagle—could be poised for a rebound.