Abstract

NOV Inc will release its second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, 2026, Post-Mkt; this preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, profitability, and EPS, compares them with the company’s prior outlook, and highlights segment trends and analyst sentiment into the print.

Market Forecast

Based on current-quarter forecasts, the market expects NOV Inc to deliver approximately 2.09 billion US dollars in revenue, down 2.71% year over year, with estimated EPS of 0.17 and EBIT of 113.17 million US dollars, implying year-over-year declines of 43.98% and 35.83%, respectively. The company’s prior update indicated second-quarter revenue would decline by 4%–6% year over year and guided adjusted EBITDA to a range of 185.00 million to 215.00 million US dollars.

NOV Inc’s main revenue streams last quarter were Energy Equipment at 1.19 billion US dollars and Energy Products and Services at 897.00 million US dollars, with intersegment eliminations of 35.00 million US dollars; the near-term outlook centers on converting orders to shipments while managing logistics and service activity normalization. The Energy Products and Services business appears positioned for incremental improvement if operational delays ease, supported by service backlogs and the company’s readiness to execute deferred work.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, NOV Inc reported revenue of 2.05 billion US dollars (down 2.43% year over year), a gross profit margin of 18.47%, net income attributable to the parent of 19.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 0.93%, and adjusted EPS of 0.05 (down 73.68% year over year). Net profit rose 124.36% sequentially, as operational throughput improved from the prior quarter’s trough.

A key business highlight was bookings of 520.00 million US dollars, representing a book-to-bill ratio of 80%, while the company returned 100.00 million US dollars to shareholders. By segment, Energy Equipment contributed 1.19 billion US dollars and Energy Products and Services contributed 897.00 million US dollars; the company noted that late-quarter disruptions deferred some deliveries and offshore service work, which weighed on revenue recognition and profitability.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Energy Equipment

The Energy Equipment business remains the largest revenue contributor, and the second-quarter setup focuses on translating the order book into shipments while addressing the operational delays that pushed some deliveries out of the first quarter. Management previously indicated that late-quarter disruptions reduced revenue by roughly 54.00 million US dollars and adjusted EBITDA by about 32.00 million US dollars, framing a key path for sequential recovery if logistics normalize. Consensus for the second quarter calls for 2.09 billion US dollars of total company revenue and 113.17 million US dollars of EBIT, implying that execution in equipment deliveries and associated margins needs to improve from the first-quarter baseline.

Gross margin last quarter was 18.47%, reflecting both mix and under-absorption effects tied to timing of shipments. As the quarter progressed, clearing deferred orders and converting backlog should help utilization and overhead absorption, which in turn supports margin repair toward the company’s guided adjusted EBITDA range of 185.00 million to 215.00 million US dollars. Using the revenue estimate near 2.09 billion US dollars, this guidance implies an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of roughly 8.86% to 10.31%, which would represent a sequential step-up if realized. The magnitude of margin improvement will hinge on shipment timing within the quarter and any lingering friction in supply chains or logistics corridors.

Pricing and cost discipline remain important variables for the equipment line. The first quarter’s net profit margin of 0.93% underscores how sensitive bottom-line results are to volume timing and cost absorption; the second quarter gives NOV Inc an opportunity to demonstrate operating leverage as deferred deliveries flow. Bookings of 520.00 million US dollars in the last quarter (80% book-to-bill) suggest a measured demand environment; thus, profitability improvements are expected to come predominantly from execution, cost control, and mix rather than from a surge in orders. Investors will likely focus on whether exit rates in June set up a steadier conversion cadence into the third quarter.

Most promising business: Energy Products and Services

Energy Products and Services generated 897.00 million US dollars last quarter and stands to benefit as deferred offshore services and maintenance work proceed, assuming operational conditions allow. Management’s prior commentary linked revenue shortfalls to delayed services and higher operating costs; reducing those frictions should be accretive to both revenue recognition and profitability in this line. The segment’s inherent mix of aftermarket, services, and products can translate backlog into revenue more quickly than large project equipment, providing near-term torque if field activity normalizes.

The second quarter’s guided adjusted EBITDA range of 185.00 million to 215.00 million US dollars implicitly requires improved contribution from services alongside equipment shipments. Services work typically carries attractive incremental margins, so even modest catch-up in deferred work could support the high end of the EBITDA range. The revenue estimate of 2.09 billion US dollars and the implied margin envelope suggest that execution in the services channel—technicians on site, parts availability, and logistics—is an important determinant of quarter-to-quarter profitability variability.

While the company did not disclose segment-level year-over-year growth rates, the composition of last quarter’s revenue and the reported operational delays point to a tangible opportunity for sequential improvement in Energy Products and Services. As deferred maintenance and repair activity is completed, this segment can provide a more stable earnings base through the quarter. Investors will watch for commentary on service backlogs, run-rate utilization of service crews, and the pace at which deferred offshore work is being completed, all of which feed directly into margin quality and cash conversion.

Key stock price swing factors this quarter

Earnings sensitivity this quarter is skewed toward volume conversion and margin realization. The first quarter’s gross margin of 18.47% leaves ample room for upside if manufacturing throughput improves and cost absorption normalizes; conversely, if logistical bottlenecks persist, the drag visible in the first quarter could extend. The consensus EPS estimate of 0.17 embeds a 43.98% year-over-year decline, implying that much of the expected pressure is already reflected in forecasts; positive execution surprises could therefore have an outsized effect on the share price.

The company’s guidance of 185.00 million to 215.00 million US dollars in adjusted EBITDA is a focal point. At the midpoint, this implies roughly 200.00 million US dollars of adjusted EBITDA on revenue near 2.05–2.09 billion US dollars, a margin of around 9.50% to 9.80% depending on the revenue denominator. Achieving or exceeding the mid-to-upper end of the range would signal that March’s headwinds were transitory and that the operational cadence has normalized into June, while underperforming the range would raise questions about lingering disruptions. Cash returns are also in focus after the company returned 100.00 million US dollars to shareholders last quarter and declared a regular 0.09 per-share dividend; continued capital returns can temper volatility, but they will not offset an earnings miss.

On the top line, the company’s own guidance for a 4%–6% year-over-year revenue decline frames downside risk against the consensus decrease of 2.71%. Investors will compare the company’s commentary with sell-side forecasts to gauge the likelihood of a narrow beat versus a conservative guide. Taken together, the balance of risks revolves around operational execution—specifically, the timing of equipment deliveries and the completion of deferred service work—rather than demand inflections, making intra-quarter cadence and exit rates key reads for the back half of 2026.

Analyst Opinions

Among the analyst views collected in recent months, opinions skew cautiously bullish when categorized strictly into bullish versus bearish calls. Bullish views include Stifel Nicolaus, where analyst Stephen Gengaro maintained a Buy rating with a 23.00 US dollars target, and Capital One, which upgraded NOV Inc to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its target to 26.00 US dollars from 25.00 US dollars. On the bearish side, Zephirin cut its price target to 17.00 US dollars while maintaining a Hold and a medium-risk stance; several other institutions maintained Hold ratings with targets around 20.00–22.00 US dollars, which we classify as neutral rather than bearish for this tally. Counting only bullish and bearish views, the ratio is approximately 67% bullish to 33% bearish in the sample considered, so we detail the bullish case.

Bullish analysts emphasize execution-driven recovery and margin normalization rather than a step-change in demand. The Stifel case centers on order conversion as the primary lever for sequential EBITDA expansion within the quarter and into the second half, given the first-quarter book-to-bill of 80% and the company’s 185.00 million to 215.00 million US dollars adjusted EBITDA guidance for the second quarter. If deferred equipment and service work clears at a reasonable pace, Stifel’s target implies confidence that the business can sustain a high single-digit to low double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin and gradually rebuild EPS above the 0.17 consensus starting point.

Capital One’s upgrade to Overweight with a 26.00 US dollars target reflects a view that risk-reward has improved after the pullback around the first-quarter miss and revised outlook. Their stance effectively argues that the market has already priced in the near-term revenue decline and that operational normalization—particularly in services—can support upside to the midpoints of management’s guidance. The implied target multiple suggests tolerance for a recovery trajectory in margins and cash conversion as deferred revenues are recognized, aided by stable capital returns including the recently declared 0.09 per-share dividend.

The bullish side also notes that consensus embeds significant year-over-year compression—revenue down 2.71%, EPS down 43.98%, and EBIT down 35.83%—which lowers the bar for upside surprise if execution improves. Given the first quarter’s net profit margin of 0.93% and gross margin of 18.47%, incremental throughput from clearing deferred work can disproportionately benefit margins through better overhead absorption, a dynamic that bullish analysts believe is underappreciated in current estimates. Achieving the upper half of the 185.00 million to 215.00 million US dollars adjusted EBITDA range would corroborate this thesis and could catalyze positive revisions to out-quarter EPS.

In the run-up to July 28, 2026, Post-Mkt, the bullish framework thus hinges on three validations: meeting or modestly beating the 2.09 billion US dollars revenue consensus despite the company’s more cautious view of a 4%–6% decline; delivering adjusted EBITDA near the high end of the guided range, implying 10% margins as conversion improves; and demonstrating that service activity normalization is in progress, which would reinforce a cleaner exit rate into the third quarter. Should these factors align, bullish institutions argue that the shares can begin to discount a steadier conversion cadence in the back half, with scope for multiple expansion toward the high teens in price and renewed confidence in the earnings recovery path.