Citigroup stated that driven by strong momentum, copper prices are expected to rise to $14,000 per ton over the next three months, but without new catalysts, prices could peak as early as this month.

Citigroup analysts noted in a report that they maintain their price forecast for London copper averaging $13,000 per ton from the second to the fourth quarter, adding that market momentum, remaining room for positioning, and the continuation of several bullish narratives could further drive prices higher in the short term.

Bullish narratives include arbitrage/tariff dynamics related to the United States, expectations for demand and growth, and constrained copper mine supply. Nevertheless, "our confidence in further copper price gains is limited, and our base case is that the market will ultimately give back any gains above $13,000."

A price level of $13,000 is sufficient to incentivize more scrap copper supply, promote substitution, and encourage material savings, thereby achieving a balanced global physical market by 2026.

Arbitrage sentiment between the London Metal Exchange and the New York Commodity Exchange has been a "core pillar" of recent copper price strength but remains vulnerable to uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy.

The baseline judgment is that refined copper tariffs will ultimately not be implemented or will be mitigated through exemptions for US regional partners, such as Chile.