Guosen Securities released a research report stating that CIDI (03881) is a leading enterprise in the field of intelligent driving products and solutions for commercial vehicles, continuously benefiting from the accelerated development of the Robo-X industry. The brokerage forecasts the company's revenue for 2025-2027 to be RMB 1.006 billion, RMB 1.867 billion, and RMB 3.518 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 145.3%, 85.7%, and 88.4% respectively. Initiating coverage, it assigns an Outperform rating. The main viewpoints of Guosen Securities are as follows.

CIDI is a leading player in the commercial vehicle intelligent driving product and solution sector, primarily focusing on autonomous driving solutions for mining trucks and logistics vehicles, V2X, and intelligent perception. CIDI is a globally leading hard-tech intelligent driving product company (Stock Code: 03881.HK) and an innovative, product-driven supplier in China's commercial vehicle intelligent driving market. Its main business lines encompass autonomous driving solutions for mining trucks and logistics vehicles, V2X, and intelligent perception. In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 408 million, a 57.9% year-on-year increase, with a net loss of RMB 450 million (compared to -RMB 120 million in H1 2024). The adjusted net loss was -RMB 110 million (compared to -RMB 60 million in H1 2024). Revenue breakdown was Autonomous Driving (92.7%), V2X (2.3%), and Intelligent Perception (5.0%).

Commercial Vehicle Intelligent Driving: The commercialization of autonomous mining trucks is accelerating, while V2X and intelligent perception are experiencing rapid growth. 1) Autonomous Mining Trucks: Driven by technological advancements, the demand for operational safety in mining, and policy support, the commercial deployment of autonomous mining trucks is speeding up. Regarding market potential, referencing the company's prospectus, the market size for autonomous mining truck solutions in China is projected to grow from RMB 1.9 billion in 2024 to RMB 39.6 billion by 2030, representing a CAGR of 65.3%. According to the prospectus, the total addressable market (TAM) for China's autonomous mining truck solutions industry in 2024 (including product sales and fleet operations, assuming 100% penetration of intelligent driving) was approximately RMB 550 billion. In terms of market share, in 2024, CIDI was one of China's top three autonomous mining technology companies, holding a market share of approximately 12.9% in domestic autonomous mining truck solutions. 2) V2X and Intelligent Perception: Referencing the company's prospectus, the market size for China's vehicle-road-cloud integrated system is expected to increase from RMB 2 billion in 2024 to RMB 23.8 billion by 2030, a CAGR of 51%. The market size for intelligent perception solutions in China's rail transit and commercial vehicle sectors is projected to grow from RMB 1.3 billion in 2024 to RMB 10.2 billion by 2030, a CAGR of 41%.

Strong R&D and superior technology establish CIDI as an independent leader in autonomous commercial vehicle solutions, supported by a diverse and high-quality customer base. On the technology and R&D front, the company's advantages include key algorithms underlying its products and solutions, as well as algorithms and tools for internal development and testing. R&D personnel account for over 50% of its workforce, with core R&D members averaging over 15 years of engineering experience. On the product side, CIDI focuses on developing autonomous trucks for confined environments like mining and logistics, V2X (Vehicle-to-Everything) technology, and intelligent perception solutions, providing products and solutions based on its proprietary technology. The company began commercializing intelligent driving technology for commercial vehicles in confined environments in 2018, making it one of the earliest in its domestic peer group to achieve commercialization. On the client side, CIDI's major customers include mine owners and operators, government entities and universities, commercial vehicle manufacturers, and other corporate clients, forming a diverse, high-quality, and continuously expanding customer portfolio.

Risk warnings include potential slower-than-expected advancement of intelligent driving and risks associated with industrial policy support falling short of expectations.