Saudi Aramco has informally indicated to several Asian refiners that crude loadings at Yanbu port are expected to resume in the near term. This marks the first clear signal from the Saudi side to buyers regarding supply recovery since the East-West pipeline was forced offline in September following a drone strike.

According to Bloomberg, citing informed traders, at least three Asian fuel processors have received informal assurances from Saudi Aramco executives that loadings will restart imminently, although no specific timeline was provided. The sources noted that these communications were not formal notifications, and Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the matter.

Some Asian refiners have already missed their scheduled crude loading windows at Yanbu due to the pipeline outage, with their vessels either anchored near the port or en route to the area. Meanwhile, European buyers are facing a more severe impact—Aramco informed at least two European refiners last week that October crude supplies under long-term contracts would be entirely suspended due to the pipeline damage, a decision applicable to all European buyers.

Pipeline outage halts Yanbu supply nearly completely

The East-West pipeline was shut down on September 10 after a drone launched from Iraq struck the infrastructure. Prior to the attack, the pipeline transported approximately 4 million barrels per day to Yanbu port. Following the shutdown, loading activities at Yanbu have almost ground to a halt.

Bloomberg reported last week, citing insiders, that Saudi authorities are seeking to restore the pipeline to roughly half its capacity within days and aim to reach full operational capacity within about six weeks.

The 1,200-kilometer pipeline traverses the Arabian Peninsula, connecting major oil fields in eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast. It serves as a critical route for Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz when shipping crude to Europe and Asia. The line originates near Abqaiq, the world's largest crude processing facility, crosses desert terrain and the Hejaz mountains, and terminates on the western coast. Approximately 2 million barrels per day of the flow is directed to domestic consumption at refineries along the Red Sea coast.

Asian buyers see limited disruption while European clients bear the brunt

Following the pipeline outage, Saudi Arabia has increased exports to Asia from Ras Tanura port on the Persian Gulf, with cargoes delivered via ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman after transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This alternative route has kept supply disruptions for Asian buyers relatively contained.

By contrast, European customers face a far more constrained position. Since Yanbu is the primary loading point for European crude imports from Saudi Arabia, the pipeline shutdown has caused a complete halt in October term supplies to Europe. Nicholas Dyer, an analyst at energy research firm Energy Aspects, noted that tank inventories at Yanbu are currently at historically low levels, and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to deplete its storage tanks to sustain exports, which will further tighten available supply at the port.

Dyer also warned that the supply squeeze at Yanbu could trigger ripple effects, impacting the Sidi Kerir port at the entrance of Egypt's Suez Canal—where Saudi crude is transferred for European buyers via the canal—potentially leading to additional delays and cancellations.

Persistent security concerns cast doubt on post-restart exports

The 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline presents formidable security challenges along its entire route. Most of the pipeline is buried at a depth of about one meter, providing some protection against aerial attacks, but the 11 pumping stations along the line are the most vulnerable points, where the infrastructure is exposed above ground.

Satellite imagery indicates that a pumping station south of Medina was damaged in the September attack, though Saudi officials have not confirmed the exact location of the damage. According to insiders, Saudi Aramco is exploring ways to bypass the damaged section to restore partial pipeline capacity.

Even if the pipeline restarts successfully, the full recovery of Yanbu exports remains uncertain.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have threatened to blockade Saudi ports and continue to strengthen their military presence near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, posing an ongoing threat to vessels transiting that waterway. This could force some cargoes to reroute northward through the Suez Canal, which would mean higher costs and longer transit times for Asian buyers.

Geopolitical risk remains the core variable

On the diplomatic front, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has sought military assistance from US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister to counter the Houthis, but neither country has indicated willingness to intervene directly.

For market participants, the three core variables shaping near-term crude supply expectations remain: whether the East-West pipeline recovers as planned, when Yanbu loadings fully resume, and whether Red Sea shipping security can be guaranteed.