Judicial Ruling Sparks Flight to Safety as Trade Deals Face Uncertainty, Gold Tops $5,170

Stock News
3 hours ago

A recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that limits presidential authority to impose tariffs has created uncertainty around trade negotiations, unsettling markets and boosting gold prices. Meanwhile, prospects for U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are influencing crude oil markets. Gold climbed as much as 1.3%, surpassing $5,170 per ounce. After the Supreme Court ruled that the president lacked emergency powers to set retaliatory tariffs, the former president announced over the weekend his intention to impose a 15% global tariff to preserve protective trade measures. The ruling weakened the U.S. dollar, making gold cheaper for many international buyers. The court's decision has cast doubt on the future of trade agreements negotiated between the U.S. and its key partners. A senior European trade official stated he would propose delaying approval of a pact with Washington until the situation becomes clearer; Indian officials postponed a planned visit to the U.S.; and a member of Japan's ruling party described the current situation as a "mess." This uncertainty has provided further momentum for gold's recovery from a sharp decline late last month. With many long-term supports for the metal—including heightened geopolitical tensions and investor wariness toward sovereign bonds and currencies—still in place, gold has now advanced for three consecutive weeks. At the time of writing, gold was up 1.14% at $5,162.51 per ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% after declining 0.2% on Friday. Silver rose 3.31% to $87.45 per ounce. Platinum and palladium also posted gains. Separately, developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations are affecting crude oil markets. Oil prices edged lower as investors weighed the possibility of a nuclear agreement between the two nations, with further talks expected later this week even as U.S. military presence builds up in the Middle East. Brent crude moved toward the $71 per barrel level, after closing largely unchanged on Friday despite the former president's remarks that he was considering limited military action against Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude also declined on Monday. Iran's foreign minister said on Sunday that it is now "very likely to find a diplomatic solution based on a win-win game, a solution is within reach." He noted that negotiations with a U.S. envoy are expected to take place in Geneva. Although global oversupply concerns persist, oil prices rose earlier this year as fears of U.S.-Iran conflict pushed prices higher. Traders rushed to hedge against the risk of escalation, triggering a surge in futures and options trading. "Markets can tolerate headlines, but they won't ignore real supply disruptions," said the chief investment officer of Karobaar Capital LP. "If Iran's exports are hit, or if there is a credible disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—which is highly likely if things deteriorate—then oil will be repriced quickly." The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, through which tankers carrying crude oil and liquefied natural gas transit daily to global markets. Tehran need only disrupt shipments, without fully blocking the strait, to significantly impact global oil markets. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait all ship oil through the Strait of Hormuz, with the majority of their cargoes destined for Asia. Iran produces over 3 million barrels of crude per day, accounting for about 3% of global output, with much of it flowing to China. Despite concerns over escalating Middle East hostilities, Brent's prompt spread—the difference between the two nearest contracts—narrowed within a bullish backwardation structure. The closely watched measure stood at 42 cents per barrel on Monday, compared with over $1 at the end of January. "Watch the time spreads, watch diesel/heating oil inventories, and watch OPEC discipline," the Karobaar Capital CIO added. "If refined product markets tighten or the curve moves into stronger backwardation, that tells you something real is happening."

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