Abstract
Patria Investments Ltd will report Q4 2025 results on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors watching revenue growth, margins, and EPS trajectory as management commentary and analyst expectations converge heading into the print.Market Forecast
Consensus implies Patria Investments Ltd’s current-quarter revenue of $124.90 million, EBIT of $78.59 million, and EPS of $0.45, reflecting estimated year-over-year growth of 35.30%, 29.16%, and 30.77%, respectively; margin commentary suggests steady-to-improving profitability, though no explicit gross margin or net margin forecast was disclosed. Management’s key revenue drivers this quarter are expected to remain management fees and transaction-related revenues, with visibility reinforced by committed capital and fee-paying AUM expansion; the most promising segment is management fees at $85.40 million last quarter, which continues to benefit from fee-paying AUM growth and fund deployment.Last Quarter Review
Patria Investments Ltd delivered last quarter revenue of $86.50 million, a gross profit margin of 60.91%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $22.57 million, a net profit margin of 26.11%, and adjusted EPS of $0.30, with year-over-year increases in both revenue and EPS. A notable operational highlight was resilient fee-related earnings supported by higher management fees, while incentive fees and M&A supervision contributed modestly and taxes remained a headwind. By business mix, management fees generated $85.40 million, with smaller contributions from M&A supervision at $2.70 million and incentive fees at $0.20 million, while taxes reduced segment net by $1.80 million.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main recurring revenue engine: Management fees
Management fees remain the anchor of Patria Investments Ltd’s earnings model given a largely contractually-based fee structure tied to fee-paying assets under management. With the forecast calling for $124.90 million in total revenue and EPS of $0.45, the bulk of the incremental top-line is likely to stem from higher fee-paying AUM and the full-quarter effect of capital raised in prior periods. The company’s disclosure last quarter showed management fees of $85.40 million, underscoring the scale of this segment and the operating leverage it provides when layer on top of relatively stable fixed costs. Assuming steady gross profitability near recent levels, incremental fee revenues could translate efficiently into EBIT, consistent with the 29.16% year-over-year EBIT forecast growth.The durability of fee revenues typically depends on net inflows, deployment pace, and the attrition of legacy funds rolling off fees. If the firm continues to see healthy fundraising in flagship strategies and accelerates deployment in newer vintages, management fees should trend higher through the quarter and into the year, supporting both revenue and adjusted EPS. Any moderation in incentive fees would be partially offset by predictable base management fees, which historically cushion earnings across cycles. Investors will focus on commentary around fee-paying AUM growth, gross inflows versus redemptions, and the timing of new product launches that could provide a further uplift in recurring revenues.
Largest growth option: Performance/incentive economics and transaction-related revenue
While inherently more variable, performance-linked revenues and transaction-related activity can provide upside torque to quarterly results when realizations and exits line up. The forecast mix suggests the company is not relying on a disproportionate surge in incentive fees this quarter, given the stable EPS trajectory and improving EBIT. However, even modest contributions from performance fees, M&A supervision, or deal-related services can enhance the margin profile because these revenues often carry higher incremental margins compared with base fees. If the macro backdrop allows for portfolio realizations or refinancing events, there may be positive surprise potential versus the $124.90 million revenue and $0.45 EPS forecasts.The risk to this segment lies in timing: if exit windows are narrow or if market volatility delays transactions, performance revenues could undershoot intra-quarter expectations. That said, the base of recurring management fees provides downside mitigation. Investors should pay attention to any qualitative guidance on expected realizations in the pipeline, as well as the valuation marks across portfolios that would inform the cadence of performance fee crystallization later in the year.
Key stock driver this quarter: Margins and operating leverage
The combination of a 35.30% revenue growth forecast and a 29.16% EBIT growth forecast implies measured operating leverage, with scope for improvement if expense growth remains controlled. Last quarter’s gross profit margin of 60.91% and net profit margin of 26.11% provide a useful baseline for assessing whether scale benefits are flowing through to profitability. If gross margin holds near recent levels and SG&A growth lags the top-line expansion, EPS could meet or slightly exceed the $0.45 estimate. Conversely, investment in growth initiatives or integration costs tied to platform expansion could dilute near-term margin gains even as they support longer-term earnings durability.The market is also likely to weigh the quality of earnings: a heavier tilt to recurring management fees would generally be viewed positively for predictability, while a larger-than-expected share of incentive fees could introduce higher variability to subsequent quarters. Commentary around cost discipline, headcount, and technology or product build-outs will be central to framing the durability of the margin trajectory. Clarity on the cash conversion of earnings and capital allocation priorities, including dividends and potential acquisition activity, may also influence the stock’s near-term reaction.