Goldman Sachs Group indicated that sustained high oil prices could pose the most significant threat to U.S. corporate earnings this year, cautioning that for every 1 percentage point decline in U.S. economic growth, profits of S&P 500 constituent companies could fall by up to 4%.

International oil prices surged above $119 per barrel on Monday, reaching their highest level since mid-2022, driven by ongoing supply disruptions resulting from escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

The firm noted that while the direct impact of modest oil price increases on S&P 500 earnings is relatively limited, prolonged and severe supply disruptions could introduce substantial downside risks to U.S. equities.

According to the bank's estimates, investments in artificial intelligence and AI cloud services contributed approximately 25% of the S&P 500's earnings per share growth in 2025, a figure expected to rise to around 40% by 2026.