Market attention is on Kevin Warsh's views. On January 30, President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, succeeding current Chair Powell whose term expires in May. Kevin Warsh is known for his policy stance favoring a combination of "interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction." Subsequently, markets priced in a "return of Fed independence," with silver falling over 30% at one point and gold dropping 11%, marking its largest single-day decline since March 1980. During that week, Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks all faced pressure. In the short term, caution is warranted against volatility stemming from extreme sentiment reversals. Trend-wise, we believe this significant decline does not alter the broader global inflation narrative. The core driver overseas currently stems from Trump's unilateral decision-making and his policies. The primary motivation behind nominating Kevin Warsh lies in the desire for interest rate cuts to lower credit card rates and stimulate the real estate market. Conversely, in the current environment of slightly tight liquidity, realizing Warsh's proposed "balance sheet reduction" would likely require more aggressive "interest rate cuts" for counterbalance and coordination. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned again on Wednesday that the United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path, raising its deficit forecast for the next decade by $1.4 trillion, partly due to President Trump's 2025 tax laws and immigration policies.

The overarching trend of the inflation narrative remains intact. The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11 emphasized deepening actions to boost consumption and intensifying efforts to regulate "involution-style" competition. The conference confirmed that promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable rise in prices are key considerations for monetary policy. On January 15, the central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point cut to the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, with the one-year rate for relending facilities dropping to 1.25%, and rates for other maturities adjusted accordingly. On January 20, the Ministry of Finance published five key policy documents covering personal consumption loans, equipment upgrades, loans for small and medium-sized enterprises, loans for service industry entities, and special guarantees for private investment. The core focus is "extending terms, broadening scope, and raising standards," indicating a clear domestic policy trend towards boosting inflation. The central bank released its Q4 2025 Monetary Policy Execution Report, clearly stating it will continue to implement appropriately accommodative monetary policy and conduct regular government bond buying and selling operations. The central bank announced it will conduct a 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repo operation on February 13. The National Bureau of Statistics released its first price data on February 11 following the 2025 base period rotation, showing China's January CPI year-on-year increase slowed to 0.2%, while the PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4%. On February 12, the offshore renminbi broke through the 6.90 per US dollar level, the first time since mid-2023. Furthermore, global geopolitical tensions persist. Amid populist and trade protectionist sentiments, competition for mineral and energy resources is intensifying globally. From a macro trend perspective, only economic recession or interest rate hike expectations could serve as potential turning points. Fundamentally, US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, growing at the fastest pace since 2022, driven by increases in new orders and output. US non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly above market expectations of 65,000, marking the largest increase since last April, with annual figures revised down by 862,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.3%, compared to expectations and the previous reading of 4.4%. The US and India announced last Friday that they had reached a provisional framework for a mutually beneficial trade agreement. The US will impose an 18% so-called "reciprocal tariff" on goods originating from India, while India committed to purchasing $500 billion worth of US products over five years. Trump confirmed via executive order that India has pledged to stop direct or indirect imports of Russian oil. Following her election victory, Japan's Takachiho Naomi has shown restraint regarding cutting consumption tax, emphasizing she will not issue new bonds to fill spending gaps, temporarily alleviating market concerns about fiscal deterioration. Yields on Japanese ultra-long-term government bonds retreated further.

Across commodity sectors, short-term market volatility requires caution. Long-term supply constraints in the non-ferrous metals sector remain unresolved, maintaining high certainty. Precious metals also regain their allocation value following this round of adjustment. In energy, OPEC+ representatives confirmed plans to keep crude oil production stable in March, scheduling the next meeting for March 1. The meeting did not discuss supply issues beyond March. The US will "sell on consignment" Venezuelan oil, while Trump expressed a desire to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel and expects the US to take control of Venezuela for many years to come, extracting crude from its vast oil reserves. Short-term geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the long-term threat of increased Venezuelan production remains. US and Israeli leaders discussed a "joint action plan" in case US-Iran negotiations fail. Trump stated he informed Netanyahu that reaching a deal would be their preferred option. Within the chemicals sector, products like PTA and PVC showed relative resilience against declines, aided by "anti-involution" measures and stock-commodity linkages. The agricultural sector still requires attention to weather expectations and short-term swine disease situations. The ferrous sector should watch for domestic policy expectations and potential recovery from low valuations.

Strategy: For commodities and stock index futures: Consider buying precious metals on dips. Risks: Geopolitical risks (upside risk for energy sector); Global economic downturn exceeding expectations (downside risk for risk assets); Federal Reserve tightening exceeding expectations (downside risk for risk assets); Impact of overseas liquidity risks (downside risk for risk assets).