A new report from UBS Group indicates that humanoid robots are accelerating their transition from proof-of-concept to industrial applications, with global demand projected to reach 30,000 units by 2026.
Analyst Phyllis Wang stated in the report released this week that as robots gradually develop "cognitive capabilities," their proficiency in performing repetitive tasks within factory floors and warehouses is seeing significant improvement. Although only a limited number of robots are currently capable of autonomously completing simple tasks in industrial settings this year, the foundation for growth has been established.
The report further notes that if breakthroughs occur in on-site industrial applications, demand forecasts for 2027 and 2028 have considerable upside potential. Leading manufacturers have already begun capacity planning. Tesla Motors plans to establish a production line with an annual capacity of one million Optimus robots, expected to commence operations by the end of 2026.
UBS believes that while there remains a gap between the current intelligence level of robots and customer expectations, manufacturers' capacity expansion plans signal clear confidence in the market's future prospects.
Chinese Companies Dominate, Tesla Leads Capacity Expansion According to UBS estimates, global shipments of humanoid robots in 2025 will be approximately 18,600 units, with Chinese companies already holding a dominant share. Unitree and AgiBot are each expected to ship around 5,000 units, contributing a combined total of nearly 10,000 units—more than half of the global volume—demonstrating that Chinese firms have established a first-mover advantage in the commercialization phase.
Regarding capacity expansion, Tesla Motors has the most aggressive plan, targeting a production line for one million Optimus units annually, slated to begin production by the end of 2026. UBTECH aims to achieve an annual capacity of 10,000 units this year, while Boston Dynamics expects to establish an annual capacity of 30,000 units for its Atlas robot by 2028. These developments indicate that, although products are still in the iteration phase, leading manufacturers are already positioning themselves for scaled application.
Growth Peak Anticipated in 2027-2028 UBS maintains its base case forecast of 30,000 units of global humanoid robot demand in 2026 but highlights potential upside risks. Should artificial intelligence technology evolve at a faster pace or positive customer feedback drive higher adoption rates, demand could reach 35,000 units in an optimistic scenario and potentially climb to 40,000 units in an extreme scenario.
Analyst Phyllis Wang emphasized that substantial breakthroughs in industrial applications could significantly raise demand forecasts for 2027 and 2028, with the true surge in shipments likely concentrated during this period.
In terms of application scenarios, humanoid robots are expanding beyond industrial domains like factory floors and warehouses into broader environments. Currently focused primarily on repetitive tasks, their functional scope is expected to widen continuously as AI capabilities advance.