2024年11月6日,纽约时报股价盘中大涨5.35%,主要原因是共和党候选人特朗普在大选中胜算大增所致。
数据显示,纽约时报、Nate Silver等权威机构以及加密预测市场Polymarket的赔率都显示,随着关键摇摆州计票临近尾声,特朗普赢得大选的概率在当日大幅增加,最高一度达到90%左右。作为长期报道大选的知名媒体,一旦特朗普连任,将在反对党执政期间为纽约时报带来更多关注和订阅。因此市场预期,纽约时报等媒体在特朗普第二任期内发展前景向好,纽约时报股价大涨。
与此同时,支持特朗普的投资者在Polymarket上对其胜选下注数亿美元。其中法国交易员Théo一人就下注4500万美元押注特朗普胜选,如果特朗普最终如期大获全胜,该交易员可获8000万美元的回报,反映出市场对特朗普高获胜赔率的预期。
除纽约时报外,其他媒体公司股价当日也出现不同程度上涨,反映了市场预期特朗普连任后带来的不确定性和争议性有利于媒体行业发展的看好情绪。
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