Huachuang Securities Reaffirms "Recommend" Rating for Greentown China with HK$12.3 Target Price

Stock News
Apr 07

Huachuang Securities issued a research report stating that precision in land acquisitions is the core reason for recommending the company. Since 2022, Greentown China has maintained high accuracy in land acquisitions and, supported by its product strength in the "era of good housing," has achieved solid sales performance. However, the company still needs to digest older inventory from 2021 and earlier, which has lower gross profit margins, and faces impairment pressures. It is expected that settlement profits may temporarily remain under pressure. The firm adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2026-2028 to RMB 0.22, RMB 0.22, and RMB 0.21, respectively. Based on a residual income model valuation, the company is estimated to be worth approximately RMB 27.5 billion, with a target price of HK$12.3 for 2026, maintaining a "Recommend" rating. Key points from Huachuang Securities are as follows: In 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 154.966 billion, down 2.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 71 million, down 95.6% year-on-year. Short-term profit pressure persists, and revenue is expected to face further declines. The decline in revenue and net profit is mainly due to: 1) adjustments in the real estate sector and the company's proactive efforts to reduce long-term inventory, leading to a drop in property sales gross margin to 11.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from 2024; and 2) asset impairment losses of RMB 4.921 billion. Based on the company's sales performance, revenue is projected to remain under pressure over the next two years. In 2025, sales from self-invested projects decreased by 11% year-on-year, while the company actively acquired land in its core markets. 1) Sales from self-invested projects amounted to RMB 153.4 billion, down 11% year-on-year, with equity sales of RMB 104.3 billion, down 14% year-on-year. Sales in first- and second-tier cities accounted for 84% of the total, up 5 percentage points year-on-year, with Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing contributing 52%. 2) Equity land acquisition spending reached RMB 51.1 billion, adding new property value of RMB 135.5 billion, up 25% year-on-year, with an equity ratio of 69%. 86% of the new property value is located in first- and second-tier cities, with Hangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai, and Xi'an accounting for 68% of the total. 3) Despite high land auction market activity in the first half of 2025, the company acquired some projects with high premium rates. Although sales pace slowed due to adjustments in Hangzhou and Shanghai's real estate markets, the company leveraged its brand influence and strong operational capabilities to achieve solid project performance. As of the end of March 2026, the Greentown Yilu project in Shanghai's Beicai area, a former land king, recorded 161 online transactions with a sales rate of 63%. The Chaoming Waitan project in Hongkou District launched on March 28, with 44 units sold initially and a sales rate of 90%. The average profit margin for high-premium land acquisition projects in 2025 is estimated at 4.5%, maintaining a certain profit cushion. Debt structure continues to optimize, with smooth financing channels. 1) The company's cash-to-short-term debt ratio stood at 2.6 times, with monetary funds of RMB 63.2 billion, ensuring ample liquidity. Interest-bearing debt totaled RMB 133.4 billion, down 2.8% year-on-year. The average financing cost at the period-end was 3.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from 2024. 2) The company continued to issue medium- to long-term domestic credit bonds, with issuance rates declining from 4.37% in March to 3.18% in September, further reducing financing costs. Risks include intense competition in land acquisitions impacting profit margins and potential challenges in offloading low-quality inventory.

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