On the afternoon of February 19, gold and silver prices experienced volatile upward movements. As of approximately 14:18, spot gold once again climbed above $5,000 per ounce, marking a 0.49% increase for the day. Spot silver rose over 1%, reaching $78 per ounce. Crude oil futures also moved higher, with Brent crude oil touching $70 per barrel.
Looking ahead for gold, ANZ forecasts that the price of gold will reach $5,800 per ounce in the second quarter of this year. UBS provides a more aggressive prediction, suggesting it could peak at $6,200 per ounce by mid-year. The primary drivers are seen as central bank and investment demand, widening fiscal deficits, declining US real interest rates, and geopolitical risks. Jefferies has already raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4,200 to $5,000, noting that against a backdrop of inflation and a depreciating US dollar, investors and central banks "effectively have only one choice—hard assets."
The US military is reportedly prepared to "strike Iran as early as this weekend," while Iranian defense forces have entered a state of full combat readiness. According to reports, informed sources disclosed that the US military has made preparations for a potential military strike on Iran this weekend, though US President Trump has not yet made a final decision. Sources indicated that the White House has been briefed that, following a significant recent troop buildup in the Middle East, the military is prepared to launch an attack over the weekend. Trump has privately debated the pros and cons of military action and sought advice from advisors and allies on the best course of action—it remains unclear if he will decide before the weekend.
A second round of indirect talks between the US and Iran was held on February 17 in Geneva, Switzerland. Officials from both sides stated after the talks that, despite remaining differences, progress was made compared to the previous round, and both parties agreed to maintain contact.
Concurrently with the indirect negotiations, the US has been steadily enhancing its military deployments around Iran. According to a US message on the 17th, the US aircraft carrier USS Ford and its escort vessels are crossing the Atlantic Ocean towards the Strait of Gibraltar. This represents the second carrier strike group being dispatched to the vicinity of Iran. A previous US message on the 12th had stated that the USS Ford and its escorts were ordered to redeploy from the Caribbean Sea to the Middle East. Prior to this, the USS Lincoln carrier strike group arrived in the Middle East region in January 2026 and is currently operating in waters near Oman.
It is reported that the US military has also deployed over a dozen other warships, hundreds of aircraft, and multiple air defense systems in the Middle East, utilizing more than 150 military transport aircraft sorties to deliver weapons, equipment, and ammunition to the region.
Two Israeli sources stated on the 18th that there are indications the US and Israel might launch a joint attack on Iran in the coming days. Israel has raised its national alert level, and the Israeli Home Front Command and other emergency agencies have been instructed to "prepare for war." The sources revealed that Israel has been skeptical of the US-Iran talks for weeks and has been continuously accelerating its operational plans and defensive deployments.
Separately, a US message on the 18th indicated that there are currently no signs of a breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations with Iran, while mounting evidence suggests US military action against Iran is "imminent." Analysis suggests that if the US takes military action against Iran, the US and Israel are likely to act jointly. The scale of such an operation would be significantly larger than the "12-Day War" of last June, posing a more "existential threat" to Iran and having profound consequences for the entire region.
An Iranian government spokesperson, Fatima Mohajerani, stated on the 18th regarding the latest round of indirect talks with the US that negotiation and military preparedness are two complementary strategies to safeguard Iran's national interests, maintain security, and enhance social cohesion. Mohajerani also stated that Iran's defense forces have entered a state of full combat readiness, and other necessary preparatory measures have been deployed in advance.
On the 18th, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that any new US strike on Iran would have serious consequences. Lavrov called on all parties to exercise restraint and seek solutions that would allow Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program.
(Disclaimer: Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors proceed at their own risk.)