Iran Tensions Drive Indian Refiners to Reconsider Russian Oil

Deep News
Mar 02

The crisis in Iran has brought transit through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill, placing India under severe pressure regarding its oil supplies. As the world's third-largest oil importer, India is turning its attention back to Russian crude, imports of which had been drastically cut back previously due to US pressure. On Monday, media reports indicated that Indian state-owned refiners and government officials held an emergency meeting over the weekend to formulate contingency plans addressing the Hormuz Strait crisis. According to informed sources, one option under consideration involves purchasing Russian crude cargoes currently stranded in nearby waters—by the end of last weekend, approximately 9.5 million barrels of Russian oil were anchored in Asian waters. Previously, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated on February 3rd that Russia had not received any information suggesting India would cease buying Russian oil. The urgency of the crisis stems from the fact that roughly 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels per day of India's imported crude oil must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for about half of its total oil imports. An official from the Petroleum Ministry indicated that India's combined commercial and strategic reserves can only sustain approximately two weeks of supply, highlighting a precarious situation. The decline in Russian oil purchases to a low point has forced a crisis-driven reassessment. India's relationship with Russian oil has recently undergone a significant shift. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India became the largest single buyer of Russian seaborne crude. However, under US pressure—particularly after a trade agreement was reached last month, which led to the withdrawal of punitive tariffs—India substantially reduced its Russian oil imports. Data shows that in February, India's crude oil imports from Russia were just over 1 million barrels per day, about half of the peak level and the lowest since September 2022. The resulting shortfall was primarily filled by increased imports of Middle Eastern crude. Now, the Hormuz Strait crisis has obstructed this alternative source, compelling India to re-evaluate the strategic importance of Russian crude. Informed sources reveal that officials from the Petroleum Ministry are urging the Ministry of External Affairs to seek some policy flexibility from Washington. The aim is to resume partial purchases of Russian oil without crossing US red lines. A multi-pronged approach is taking shape as contingency plans are developed. Beyond Russian crude, India is evaluating several alternative options. According to media reports citing sources, these options include: utilizing India's strategic petroleum reserves, accelerating supplies from Venezuela, encouraging domestic producers to increase output, and requesting that Saudi Aramco transport more crude via pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, thereby bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Should the crisis persist, the government might adopt more proactive intervention measures. These could include restricting exports of refined products to secure domestic supply, prioritizing residential gas and pipeline supplies, and mandating that industrial users switch fuels. Officials may also pressure private giant Reliance Industries to divert more fuel to the domestic market. Simultaneously, other refiners could be guided to adjust their production structures, maximizing LPG output even if it means sacrificing products like naphtha. The crisis has also highlighted underlying vulnerabilities in India's energy security. Last month, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri informed lawmakers that India's strategic petroleum reserve holds about 30 million barrels, equivalent to only around six days of consumption. Furthermore, these reserves consist solely of crude oil and do not include liquefied petroleum gas or liquefied natural gas. Nearly two-thirds of India's LNG imports and about 95% of its LPG supply originate from the Middle East, most of which must transit the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. The combination of massive demand and limited strategic buffers makes India particularly vulnerable amidst ongoing instability in the Middle East. Striking a balance between geopolitical pressures and energy security will be the central challenge for the Indian government during this crisis.

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