In our analysis of global asset cycles, we observe distinct patterns in bull and bear markets. US stocks exhibit prolonged bull markets, accounting for over 80% of total duration, making top-calling challenging with low timing efficiency. Chinese equities, while showing comparable total bull market duration (41%), experience more frequent cycle shifts, elevating the importance of identifying market peaks. Gold cycles are notably extended (averaging ~5 years) with infrequent transitions but significant price swings, warranting careful top monitoring.

For Chinese equities, we identify five key peak indicators: economic conditions, policy signals, liquidity, earnings growth, and valuations. Economic and policy factors prove most reliable—market tops typically coincide with stagflationary trends or policy tightening. However, real-time interpretation remains challenging due to: (1) proximity of economic/market inflection points; (2) occasional policy contradictions; and (3) rapid regulatory changes (e.g., 2009's abrupt monetary tightening during low inflation).

Gold's peak dynamics show stronger predictability, with four of the past five bull cycles ending upon Fed tightening expectations. The Fed's forward guidance enhances signal clarity versus Chinese policy interpretation challenges. While US fiscal deficits and central bank gold purchases influence long-term price trends, they offer weaker timing signals.

**Four 2026 Trend-Shift Factors:** 1. **Growth Rotation**: China's ongoing weak recovery vs US stagflation trajectory. Accelerated recovery in either economy could extend equity bulls but pressure gold. 2. **Policy Tightening Risks**: Current accommodative stances support assets, but slower Fed cuts or delayed Chinese stimulus may reverse liquidity tailwinds. 3. **Elevated Valuations**: Chinese stocks remain mid-range (CSI 300 forward P/E 12.6x), while gold and US equities appear stretched. 4. **Geopolitical Shocks**: Black swan events could prolong gold's rally but hurt risk assets. Historical analysis shows gold maintains the most persistent hedge effect (~49 days mean reversion time).

**Asset Allocation Recommendations:** - **Overweight**: Chinese equities (AI thematic + reasonable valuations) and gold (Fed easing + de-dollarization theme) - **Neutral**: US equities (dollar depreciation headwinds offset by tech strength) and US Treasuries (inflation risks) - **Upgrade to Neutral**: Commodities (hedge against potential trend reversals) - **Underweight**: Chinese bonds (limited upside after rate declines)

**Implementation Notes**: - Chinese equities: Favor balanced style exposure amid potential year-end volatility - Gold: Reduce momentum chasing, accumulate on dips given elevated valuations (59% above fair value) - Commodities: Position for mean-reversion after 2025 underperformance

Current conditions suggest sustained Chinese stock and gold outperformance, but investors should gradually build commodity hedges against potential macro regime shifts. The next critical monitoring window arrives in mid-2026 around Fed leadership transition and US tariff policy impacts.