伊朗战争引发美联储鸽派官员的谨慎态度

投资观察
Yesterday

美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在过去一年大部分时间里都支持降息,并曾在1月反对央行维持利率不变的决定。他周五上午对CNBC表示,本周原本准备再次投下反对票——但霍尔木兹海峡的关闭以及全球石油危机可能引发的通胀效应,促使他转而投票支持暂停行动。

"两周前就业报告出炉显示减少9.2万人时,我认为这就是转折点,必须投反对票,"沃勒在电视采访中坦言,"但此后霍尔木兹海峡被封锁,冲突似乎将演变为持久战,油价也将长期维持高位。"

沃勒的言论揭示了战争通胀效应引发的忧虑,如何帮助主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本周成功构建11比1的多数优势维持利率不变。过去一年间,这位理事始终反对"特朗普总统关税政策将导致持续通胀"的论点,但周五他警示称石油危机的影响可能截然不同。

"石油是重要的中间进口品,其影响终将渗透至经济各个层面,"他强调。

同日早间,另一位支持本周暂停决策的美联储鸽派官员米歇尔·鲍曼在单独电视访谈中表示,她仍相信就业市场疲软可能促使美联储今年实施三次降息。这位官员直言:"我始终对就业市场保持密切关注。"

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