Morgan Stanley has released a research report expressing sustained optimism regarding the prospects of AIA (01299), raising its target price by 16% from HK$96 to HK$111 and maintaining an "Overweight" rating. The report highlights AIA's robust new business value growth for 2025, projected to increase by 17% at a constant exchange rate, thereby laying a solid foundation for 2026. The firm anticipates AIA's full-year 2025 new business value will reach $5.58 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase based on the actual exchange rate (AER), primarily driven by strong growth of 28%, 19%, and 19% in the Hong Kong (China), Thailand, and Singapore markets, respectively. Although growth in the fourth quarter normalized slightly to 13%, the overall performance remains solid. Concurrently, the company's full-year operating profit and embedded value are forecasted to achieve per-share growth of 13% and 18%, respectively. Morgan Stanley believes that with the recovery of growth momentum in the Chinese market and the maintenance of healthy growth across regional businesses, AIA has returned to a sustainable growth trajectory. The firm has raised its new business value growth forecasts for AIA for 2026 and 2027 to 16% and 15%, respectively, reflecting confidence in its long-term profitability. Furthermore, the report mentions that AIA repurchased a total of $2.3 billion in shares and distributed $2.7 billion in dividends during 2025, with the full-year shareholder return rate expected to exceed 4%. Morgan Stanley expects the company may announce a new share buyback program when it releases its full-year results this March, further enhancing shareholder value.