February 20: On the previous trading day, Thursday, February 19, international gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. During the day, ongoing tensions between the US and Iran provided a rebound momentum. However, the recent strength in the US Dollar Index and better-than-expected data, including jobless claims, compared to both forecasts and prior values, limited the upside for gold bulls. Although the price has not yet returned above the middle Bollinger Band, the price action suggests a continued inclination to climb higher in the subsequent period. Support levels such as the 30-day or 60-day moving averages remain positions for considering long positions on dips.
In terms of specific price movements, gold opened the Asian session at $4977.09 per ounce, initially recording an intraday low of $4959.36. The price then primarily experienced continuous roller-coaster fluctuations throughout the day. During the US session, it slightly surpassed the early European session high, touching $5022.08, ultimately remaining within the consolidation range. It encountered resistance, pulled back, and closed at $4996.35. The daily amplitude was $62.72, with a gain of $19.26, representing an increase of 0.39%.
Looking ahead to today, Friday, February 20, international gold opened with narrow fluctuations. The continued strength of the US Dollar Index in early trading and resistance from the middle Bollinger Band on the daily technical chart are limiting gold's rebound. However, there is also support from numerous moving averages below the gold price, and fundamental support from geopolitical tensions. Therefore, in the short term, gold prices are biased towards volatile fluctuations or continued strengthening.
During the day, attention can be paid to a series of key data releases, including the US Core PCE Price Index annual rate for December, the preliminary US Q4 Real GDP annualized quarterly rate, and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February. Judging from yesterday's data releases and market expectations, the overall picture remains mixed. If the data leans towards being negative, consolidation is expected. However, if it leans positive, gold prices are likely to break through resistance and strengthen further.
On the fundamental front, regarding geopolitical situations, increasing signs suggest the US is preparing for military action against Iran. Reviewing events over the past decade, geopolitical risks have never completely disappeared. Therefore, for gold prices, this represents a potential positive factor. Temporary easing is still unlikely to reverse the gold price trend and may instead create periodic entry opportunities.
Regarding monetary policy, recently released US economic data has not substantially impacted interest rate cut expectations. The impending succession of former Fed Governor Warsh to replace Powell as Chair in May, coupled with the Trump administration's clear preference for low-interest-rate policies, leaves room for imagination regarding medium to long-term rate cuts. Consequently, overall, at least for now, the view remains unchanged that gold prices maintain a bullish prospect and a bull market trend for the year.
Technically, on the monthly chart, after gold prices extended the bearish shooting star from January with another decline in February, they found support at the converted resistance-turned-support of the initial yearly uptrend line, halted the decline, and rebounded. The price remains within the new bull market space and above the 5-month moving average, suggesting the bearish correction from January has likely been exhausted. The new bull market outlook remains valid, and prices are expected to strengthen and climb again above this trend support. However, with bullish momentum currently waning, prices may consolidate further before resuming their upward climb.
On the daily chart, gold prices are currently in a phase of continuous consolidation. In the short term, there is resistance from the middle Bollinger Band above and support from the 30-day moving average below, leaving the immediate direction unclear. However, from a longer-term perspective, given that the ZZ indicator on the daily chart had previously signaled a bottom, bearish signals on the oscillator have repeatedly diminished, and the main chart shows a bullish alignment of numerous trending moving averages below providing support, the overall trend direction remains unequivocally bullish.
For trading operations, short positions intraday can rely on the middle Bollinger Band resistance, while long positions can rely on the 30-day moving average support. For specific real-time trading guidance, follow live account information. Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are for reference only; specific entry and exit points should be confirmed based on live account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch below are around $4950 or $4900; Resistance levels to watch above are around $5020 or $5070. Silver: Support levels to watch below are around $76.70 or $74.90; Resistance levels to watch above are around $79.80 or $81.30.